In the Grade 1, $750,000 Woodward Stakes, Quality Road attempts to make amends for his narrow defeat to Blame as the prohibitive favorite one month ago in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. Prior to losing the Whitney by a head, Quality Road reeled off successive grade 1 wins in the Donn Handicap and Metropolitan Handicap to place himself at the top of the older horse division in North America. With Blame being pointed elsewhere for his next start, Quality Road faces six opponents in the Woodward, including 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who is now winless in seven races since his upset classic win. Three horses enter the Woodward with wins at Saratoga at the same one mile and one-eighth distance they are being asked to travel, most notably Convocation, who prior to winning an allowance race one month ago finished second in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap. The other two recent winners who are hoping to take a step up into graded stakes ranks are Arcodoro and Tranquil Manner, both appearing to possess the ability to be competitive in this situation. Indian Dance and Mythical Power are both winless in their last three races, although it can be noted that Mythical Power has won two Grade 3 stakes in his career – the Texas Mile in April and the Lone Star Derby in May, 2009.

Convocation earned a 113  Equibase® Speed Figure one month ago when prevailing by a neck at Saratoga and at the distance of the Woodward. Although the victory came in an allowance race, the figure earned was stakes quality. Prior to his last race, Convocation finished second in the Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park, also run at the distance of the Woodward, and two races prior to that he finished second in the Westchester Stakes, earning a career best 117 figure in the process. Although Convocation’s best efforts, evidenced by the 117 and 115 figures earned, don’t come close to any of Quality Road’s last three figures (134, 127 and 126), they are the best of any other horse in the Woodward field. Additionally, Convocation hails from the same connections, trainer Jimmy Jerkens and jockey Javier Castellano, who helped post the upset last week in the Travers Stakes with Afleet Express, which is enough reason to think Convocation can also post an upset and win the Woodward.

Quality Road is still one of the top handicap division horses in the country even after his defeat by Blame in the Whitney last month. Losing by inches on the wire, it could have been the nearly two and one-half months off prior to the Whitney that caused Quality Road to come up short, or perhaps Blame was just the superior horse that day. Considering that Quality Road earned the top  Equibase® Speed Figures thus far in 2010, 134, when winning the Donn Handicap in February at the distance of the Woodward, then earned a 127 figure winning the Metropolitan Handicap and a 126 in defeat in the Whitney, Quality Road has held his top form for the past six months. As such, Quality Road could snap back to the grade 1 winning form shown earlier this year.

Tranquil Manner ran a career best race last month at Saratoga and at the distance of the Woodward. Earning a 107 figure with that victory, Tranquil Manner won for the third time this year in six races and for the fourth time in his career. In addition, Tranquil Manner’s last race was a six point speed figure improvement from his previous start, and he could have a say in the outcome of the Woodward with a similar improving effort.

Arcodoro controlled the tempo from start to finish on July 31 at Saratoga and at the distance of the Woodward to post the upset at odds of 44 to 1. With that win, Arcodoro is a perfect two-for-two on conventional dirt tracks, with both wins coming since he returned from eight months off at the end of May. Although he earned a 102  figure in victory in that recent win that is lower than others in the field have earned, Arcodoro might be allowed an easy lead in this seven-horse field and even with Quality Road just behind him in the early stages could get very brave in the last eighth of a mile just as he did on July 31. As such, Arcodoro deserves respect when considering our exotic (exacta, trifecta) wagering options in the Woodward at the very least.

The rest of the field, with their best representative  Equibase® Speed Figures is Indian Dance (111), Mine That Bird (108), and Mythical Power (106).

My Selections:

Convocation
Quality Road
Tranquil Manner