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| Posted: Saturday, November 07, 2009 |
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The unbeatable Zenyatta 7:45 p.m.
You can pick and choose your favorite superlative.
Magnificent. Brilliant. Awesome. Unbeatable.
It doesn't matter which one you select. Any and all glittering terms apply to what we witnessed today as Zenyatta, looking like an also-ran for much of the race, swept to an electrifying victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic that stamped her as one of the best fillies or mares of all-time.
No other female had ever won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Zenyatta’s victory promises to stand the test of the time. It wasn’t the best field to ever break from the starting gate in the BC Classic, but it was a field filled with some of the best males in training on both these shores and overseas.
There was nothing suspect about it.
Last early on, she made a powerful move along the inside on the turn and then was taken outside for her final run that majestically carried her to the wire ahead of Gio Ponti as an ear-rattling roar arose from the crowd at Santa Anita.
It was a priceless moment – one that will stir debate in so many corners of the world.
Horse the Year? The crown that once seemed destined to be Rachel Alexandra’s and hers alone, now could wind up belonging to Zenyatta in what promises to be one of the most heated HOY debates of all-time.
So, too, will Zenyatta’s spot in history be discussed in a new light. If Rachel Alexandra can be compared with Ruffian, how can Zenyatta not be included in the discussion with a perfect 14-for-14 record.
Those points and many more like them will be discussed passionately in the coming months, though for now it would be a disservice to do anything but reflect on a victory that will go down in Breeders’ Cup lore as one of the series’ best moments – perhaps the best ever.
It was indeed a thing of beauty, especially if you backed, which I must say I didn’t, Zenyatta.
I thought 5-2 (she paid $7.60) was not worth the risk, and, even as I rip up tickets, I still feel that way. I can find 5-2 shots to bet on tonight at the Meadowlands that will come with less risk.
And in the end, it wasn’t a mutual price that mattered. What I and everyone else saw today was priceless, simply priceless.
And speaking of prices, one that did matter was the $1.8 million for the pick six.
I’ll like to claim partial responsibility for someone hitting that ticket since my picking against her no doubt guaranteed Zenyatta’s sequence-capping victory.
My choice Colonel John gave me a thrill turning for home but came up empty when it mattered most. My other selections, Rip Van Winkle, Einstein and Richard’s Kid, were also missing in action.
Oh well, the bankroll finished at $98, and I guess there’s always next year.
At least, after the thrill Zenyatta gave us, we’ll at least have plenty to talk about until then.
No disgrace in losing6:25 p.m.
Conduit did it, but the real story of the Breeders’ Cup Turf was the gutty gritty effort of Presious Passion. A one-dimensional front runner, he probably led by a baker’s dozen lengths down the backstretch through sprint-like fractions 45.14 seconds and 1:09.24.
He was reeled in by three Europeans at the top of the stretch and seemed finished. But he battled back and forced Conduit, a horse good enough to win back-to-back editions of the Turf, to the limit.
I know there is no such thing as a moral victory in horse racimg, but this one came close.
The winner paid $3.80 and opened the door for an interesting question. What if you singled Zenyatta and Conduit and went all, all, all in the other three races. You could be sitting on one heck of a ticket.
Now on to try to cash that ticket.
First of all, I’d love to see Zenyatta win the Classic. It would be fabulous for the game and give me plenty to blog about in the coming weeks. But I can’t see it happening. There are too many variables that can work against her. I can see her putting in her patented late kick, but I can’t see Mike Smith hugging the rail, ala Calvin Borel, and that will get her beat.
Instead, I like Colonel John (2) who has been a much better horse this year and should move forward off a runner-up finish in the Goodwood.
After that, you can’t ignore Rip Van Winkle, whose main problem in Europe was that he couldn’t beat See The Stars. There’s no shame in that.
Then there’s Einstein (8), who is fresh and rested for this spot, and Richard’s Kid, who should love the distance.
Looking at that collection of horse, how can you bet Zenyatta at 5-2 when there are so many other attractive such great odds on Grade 1 winners?
I can’t.
I’m taking Colonel John to win at 12-1.
I’ve got $154 left, so give me $20 to win on 2.
Then a $1 exacta box of 2-6-8-10 and a $1 exacta wheel of all with 2.
Then, so I can try to join in the festivities if Zenyatta somehow does it, a $1 triple of 4 over 2-6-8-10 over 2-6-8-10. That’s another $12 for a total of $56 and I’m down to $98.
Good luck to us all.
Land of the long shots 5:45 p.m.
What looked to be a wide-open edition of the Synthetic Mile turned out to be a perfect haven for yet another long shot.
Furthest Land, under an expert ride by Julian Leparoux, hugged the rail behind the pacesetting Midshipman, then came out in the stretch and went on to post an upset victory.
The winner, who was coming off an underappreciated in the Kentucky Cup Classic, returned $44.60 for his third win in as many tries on a synthetic surface.
That means the pick six has winners that paid $44.60, $52.60 and $63.20. If you are alive, god bless you, and please tell me your handicapping secret.
Was right with the logic on Mastercraftsman, as he finished off the board. Had Furtherst Land, but failed to clobber the race as Midshipman weakened late and lost the place spot by a bob to Ready’s Echo.
Let’s just say, it was irritating to let that one get away, especially when there was an inquiry on Ready’s Echo. Of course, there was no change in the order of finish.
I think I need to watch the Penn State-Ohio State game for a while to clear my head.
Meanwhile, today’s edition of catch-me if you can stars Presious Passion (6) in the BC Turf, who figures to be ahead by 10 lengths on the backstretch. They couldn’t catch him in the Clement Hirsch at Santa Anita, but that won’t happen here. Conduit (2) and Dar Re Mi (5) are too good to let that happen.
This will be a 1-2 all-Europe featuring last year’s Turf winner and a filly who was fifth in the Arc de l’Triomphe.
I’ve got $180 left, so give me a $5 exacta box of 2-5 and $2 doubles of 2-5 with 2-6-8-10.
Another Gold-en moment4:50 p.m.
Brilliance a year ago. Brilliance today.
Goldikova made it two in a row in the BC Mile, rallying strongly on the outside to collar long shot Courageous Cat in the final yards.
It was a superb performance as she wisely came from farther back than expected against brutal fractions. She tipped outside in the stretch and then gobbled six horses in front of her to earn a return trip to the BC winner’s circle.
Goldikova returned $4.80, which now seems generous, especially for someone like me who tried to beat her.
And how about this, the wise guy play, an all over all over Goldikova pick three returned $2,923 for a $117 investment. No, I didn’t have it.
Ok, now for the Synthetic Mile – sorry I just can’t call it a “Dirt” Mile.
This one has me baffled.
I really can’t separate the first five horses from the rail out. To me, there’s two ways of looking at the race. The European favorite, Mastercraftsman (1), either wins or finishes off the board.
So let’s do this, with the banroll down to $208, using Mastercraftsman on top, let’s take $4 exactas of 1 over 2,5, using the two longest shots of the quintet, Furthest Land (2) and Neko Bay (5) and then a $1 triple of 1 over 3,4 over 2,5, adding Midshipman (3) and Bullsbay (4).
Then, with Mastercraftsman out of the picture, a 2-3-4-5 box and a $2 exacta box of 3-4.
A score for the Tax Man 4:20 p.m.
So much for the chalk. An unheralded European brought out the tax men as Vale of York ($63.20) found a seam in the stretch and nipped the favored Lookin at Lucky, who was a very unlucky loser.
The favorite had a rocky trip around the first turn and lost ground on the turn but showed his class – on a synthetic surface – in finishing a very determined second.
In giving Europe its second win of the day, Vale of York was an overlay as he was second in a Group 1 stakes in his final prep and would have been one of the choices in the Juvenile Turf.
Credit his connections for trying the synthetics. I’d say his owners cashed some pretty nice tickets on the race, except he’s owned by Godolphin Racing and when you run Dubai you do not have to head to the $2 window for cash.
Those of you who did wager on Vale of York, you’re buying drinks tonight if you cashed a sequence bet.
The double was worth $1,915.60, the pick three $6,751.50 and the pick four $36,538.90.
Amazing.
Oh, and say goodbye to the pick six. It will no doubt be a pick five, maybe.
My choice, Noble’s Promise, made a big move to the lead on the turn and but then grew leg weary at the end. It’s been that kind of day.
On to the Mile.
Last year, there many observers who though Goldikova (11) was the brightest star of all in the Breeders’ Cup as the then 3-year-old filly posted a dazzling victory over males in the Mile.
She’s back to bully the boys once more, but frankly I don’t think she’s as good as she was a year ago and she’ll need her A race to beat this field from post 11. She lost her start after a huge effort in her previous start and think she might have topped out. Yeah, I know, bad things happens when I start to think, but I’ll still try to beat her with a fellow European, Zacinto (8), who has taken huge steps forward in his last few races.
The pace should be hot with Cowboy Cal and Gladiatorius winging on the front end, so I’ll try Court Vision (1) and Whatsthescript (2) as savers in the bottom half of the exotics.
Give me $5 to win on Zacinto, a $5 box of 8-11 and $2 exactas of 8-11 over 1-2.
Talk to you after the next long shot pop up.
A return to normalcy
3:10 p.m.
Now that’s more like it. After two straight chalks, the good ol’ Breeders’ Cup is back with an unfathomable winner that makes us a few of us deliriously happy and most of us kicking some inanimate object.
Dancing In Silks, chased the pace then kicked in late to win a wild four-horse photo in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and return a whopping $52.60.
The win was the fourth straight for the California-bred, but his first in graded stakes company. The son of Black Minnaloushe prepped for his upset win in the Cal Cup Sprint, hardly the first place you would turn to find a BC Sprint.
Oh well, if I sound bitter, I am indeed one those aggravated fans who saw a $511 pick three go by the boards when Crown of Thorns failed by a nose to get up.
Needless to say, I was not dancing or wearing silk after this one and my wife, a big Dancing With the Stars, will no doubt let me have for not betting this one for her. Sometimes you really can’t win.
My top pick Gayego wound up fourth in the four-horse photo. He was in tight a bit, but seemed to have room to get through in the stretch.
Favored Zensational didn’t break well and never reached the front, which doomed his chances.
In the Juvenile, Looking at Lucky (13) didn’t live up to his name at the post position draw. Winner of three straight West Coast stakes, the morning-line favorite drew post 13, which is never a lucky number.
It’s hard to toss him, but it’s also difficult to key him at 2-1 when he’s starting in the grandstand.
I’ll use him in the exactas, but the one I like to win is Noble’s Promise (4), who has done nothing but get better and has won three races on synthetics. He’s also 6-1.
Noble’s Promise won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his last start, holding off Aikenite (9), who has trained sharpky since that setback.
I’m going to put $10 to win on Noble’s Pleasure and try a $1 exacta box of 4-6-9-13, adding Pulsion (6) to the mix. Then give me a $1 exacta of 5,6,7,11,13 over 4.
Score One for California2:50 p.m.
I’m a bit confused. Is this the Breeders’ Cup or Wednesday’s card at Aqueduct?
Chalk, followed by chalk?
Amazing but true.
California Flag shot to the lead and never looked back, cruising to an easy score for his fourth victory in a row.
He looked great winning the Morvich at this track and distance and served up an impressive encore in the $1 million Turf Sprint.
He returned $8.80 and the chalk double was a very healthy $44.20 for combining a European with a California. Can’t complain about that.
Guess it is Breeders’ Cup Day after all. You don’t see payoffs like that on Wednesday at Aqueduct.
Gotta Have Her rallied along the inside and split my exacta with Cannonball, who wound up third.
My top pick Lord Shanakill shows why you don’t bet horse who were lame in their last start. He was nowhere to be found, making me a lame brain.
The bankroll is now at $301.40, but I’m alive with pick three’s of $65.90 with Zensational, $70.40 with Gayego and $511.40 with Crown of Thorns. Know who I’m rooting for.
Turning from the Turf Sprint to the plain ‘ol Sprint, Zensational is clearly the one to catch. A 9-5 favorite now, he reeled off three straight gate-to-wire Grade 1 sprint wins on synthetic surfaces. Yet the 3-year-old speedster will be facing a ton of early pressure. Breaking from the rail, he will be joined quickly by Cost of Freedom and Fatal Bullet.
My hope is that the blistering duel on the front end sets things up for Gayego, who’s 2-1. The 4-year-old looked sensational, and almost Zensational, in taking the Ancient Title at Santa Anita.
For third, Crown of Thorns, who’s 14-1, was a good second in the Ancient Title and could wind up in the triple.
I’ve got some rooting interest here with live tickets, so let’s just make it $10 to win on Gayego, a $1 box of 1-2-4 with an extra $1 on 1-4 and 5-4, then a $1 pick three of 1-4-5 with 4-6-9-13 with 8-11.
Let’s hope we can stay alive with those combos.
Pouncing on them
2 p.m.
The day off to a good start for chalk players and Europeans as Frankie Dettori hugged the rail with the favored Pounced ($6.80) then came out in the stretch and wore down a game Bridgetown.
Pounced look best in the PP’s and proved it on the racetrack.
Jockey Robert Landry, who wore a dunce’s cap after his ride on Careless Jewel in the BC Ladies’ Classic, redeemed himself with a fine job of nursing Bridgetown on the front end and nearly pulling off an upset.
Interactif was hurt by a wide trip and settled for third.
My 30-1 long shot flew home too wide and too late and had to settle for third. Hope you used him in the supers. I didn’t, the dummy I am.
As for the bankroll, we had win money on Pounced and cashed the exacta and are alive in doubles and pick three’s, so we’re off to a good start.
As for the Turf Sprint, it truly aggravated me last year. Had Diabolical, but he got run down by 36-1 shot Desert Code and I didn’t have that exacta combo covered. Aaargh.
Desert Code is back to torment me, I’m take him on once again, this time with Lord Shanakill (4), who is 7-1.
This European returned lame in his last race back in late July, but his recent works at Santa Anita indicate that’s a thing of the past. He won a Group 1 stakes in France before that start and if he returns to his best form, he’s the one to beat.
I tried to focus on the double and pick three because the race for the place spot is a jigsaw puzzle with a couple of pieces missing. I could name eight horses who could hit the board, but I’ll round out the triple with Cannonball (6), a U.S.-based horse who only lost by a neck in a Group 1 sprint this summer at Ascot in Great Britain, and the speedball California Flag (3), who should be the one to catch turning for home.
I’m alive in some combos, so I’ll take $5 to win on 4, a $1 exacta box of 3-4-6 and saver exactas of 9-10-13 over 3,4,6 and how about a pick three of all with 5 with 4.
Good luck once again. The fun begins
1:35 p.m.
Now the fun begins.
After, yes, a long shot started the day as Smart Bid ($29,80) took the Damascus, we come to the first Breeders’ Cup race of the day.
Pounced (4) and Interactif are vying for favoritism at 5-2. One of my favorite long shots in the race, Awesome Act (6) is 32-1, and Viscount Nelson (2) is taking some action at 5-1.
The only thing I’ll add to my wagers is a $2 across the board bet on 6.
Good luck to us all.
Early wagering report
12:40 p.m.
Post time for the first race of the day, the Damascus Stakes, is about 20 minutes away and the daily double wagering is pretty much reflecting the early line for the BC Juvenile Turf.
The horses taking the most money in the back end of the double are Interactif (11), Pounced (4), Viscount Nelson (2) and Bridgetown (7), who are 1-2-3-4 in the morning-line.
There is a scratch in the Juvenile Turf as one Kitten, Kera’s Kitten (9), is out and another Kitten, Dean’s Kitten (13) is in. Sounds like a nice race for animal lovers with Becky’s Kitten (10) also in the field.
Summer Move (14) was also scratched in the JT. Other scratches are Tenga Cat (15) and Cherokee Heaven (16) in the BC Turf Sprint, and Allegre (4) in the BC Turf.
Back soon.
Day 2 arrives
Welcome to Day Two.
The second day of action is about to unfold at a Breeders’ Cup filled with anticipation, thanks to one magical lady.
About a month ago, when Zenyatta was presumably bound for the BC Ladies’ Classic and Rachel Alexandra was destined for any place other than California, the world championships were ho-hum stuff.
Now with Zenyatta facing the biggest challenge of her undefeated career as the morning-line favorite in the $5 million BC Classic, there’s no shortage of excitement in the air. The 5-year-old male is matched against a solid group of males that comprise a more formidable challenge than the one Rachel Alexandra faced in the Woodward.
Zenyatta will be tackling better and faster horses than he has ever seen. And, unlike the small fields of fillies and mares she has been beating, she will have to get around 12 males. She’ll probably be asked to go six or seven wide she launches her famed kick at the top of stretch, and a wide, troubled trip could be the difference between perfection and a 13-of-14 record.
We’ll see.
A surprise winner in the Classic would not be out of question after what we saw in Friday’s six Breeders’ Cup races. The favorites were shutout, though, a couple of second-choices (Midday and Informed Decision) triumphed.
Europeans got off to a decent start, posting two wins. They will need three wins today to match last year’s total of five.
Elsewhere two winners prepped at Keeneland, one at Belmont Park (for a turf race) and just one had a race over the track at Santa Anita.
There was no real bias on the main track or grass, though carving out ridiculous early fractions, like Careless Jewel did in the Ladies’ Classic, is not advisable.
Three defending champs (Muhannak, Forever Together and Venutra) went down to defeat and now three more (Desert Storm in the Turf Sprint, Goldikova in the Mile and Conduit in the Turf) will try for an encore.
Another angle to keep in mind is that a couple of highly regarded horses trying a synthetic track for the first time (Sara Louise in the F&M Sprint and Devil May Care in the Juvenile Fillies) both finished off the board, sending up an ominous warnings for backers of horses like D’Funnybone in the Juvenile and Summer Bird and Quality Road in the Classic.
Now let’s address the bankroll and today’s eight races. I have $338 and my goal is to finish with at least $500 so I can end the two days in the black.
To get a head start, here are a few plays that I’ll lock in now so I will not be tapped out when those races roll around.
In the first BC race, the Juvenile Turf, Interactif (11) is the real deal. He’s good enough to give the Europeans a serious run for their money, but his post is a major drawback. The invaders are led by Pounced (4), who looks extremely tough off a runner-up finish in a Group 1 stakes in just his third career start. At a morning-line price of 9-2, he’s my selection.
I’ll put $6 to win on 4 and a $2 exacta box of 4-6-11, using Awesome Act (6), a European who wasn’t badly beat after an awful start in his last race.
Then I’ll take $2 boxes of 4-6 and 4-11 and $2 exactas of 4 with 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12.
Then, since I like Lord Shanakill (4) in the Turf Sprint and Gayego (5) in the Sprint, let’s try this: $2 doubles of 4,6,11 with 4 and another $2 double of 4,6,11 with 4,6. Then $1 pick threes of all with 4 with 5; plus 4 with 3,4,6 with 1,4,5.
That totals $79, leaving $259 for the rest of the day.
Talk to you again as post time nears for the Juvenile Turf.
User Comments
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61 total comments for "The unbeatable Zenyatta"
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Mike Relva (11/18/2009 11:18 AM)
NIHILATOR
I totally agree!
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common sense 101(NIHILATOR)edition (11/17/2009 9:46 PM)
ok so nihilator you throw out something that Jay Privman(who i cant stand by the way)said. Well how about what mike watchmaker said on blinkers off on TVG(so much better than crappy HRTV)when he said that this was actually a pretty weak classic. Everybody has there opinion but yet again privman is saying this based off the names in the race. He is not accounting for the dirt horses coming to the plastics, he is not accounting for horses like Girolamo who has never gone 2 turns and never more than a mile. Those are just a couple of reason why this was a weak classic.(let me know if you are a slow learer and therefore need more). Now west coast IDIOT again you talk about me being new to the game and yet again IM NOT but you claim to know stuff about the game but everytime you talk STUPIDITY COMES OUT. HANDICAP RACES ARE NOT AVAILABLE TO 3 YR OLDS. SO YOU CANT USE THAT AS A POSITIVE FOR ZENYATTA AND THEN KNOCK RACHEL FOR IT. THERE IS NOTHING RACHEL CAN DO ABOUT THAT SO ITS STUPID TO BRING IT UP. ALSO OLDER HORSES IN NON HANDICAP RACES HAVE DIFFERENT WEIGHT STRUCTURES. SO AGAIN WHAT ELSE WOULD YOU WANT RACHEL TO DO??? THINK ABOUT THAT AND GET BACK TO ME WITH YOU "STUPID" ANSWER.
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west coast disrespect (11/16/2009 5:55 PM)
common sense, i understand how new you are to the game, so i will try and keep it simple! see horses will not run as fast when they have more weight on their backs, it actually slows them down. and the facts are zenyatta carried more weight on here in every single race this year then rachel carried on her! actually the last time zenyatta carried as little weight as rachel carried all year was in the apple blossom last year, which was run on dirt which she handled just fine! i know you will come back with times and beyers and al sorts of different numbers that you google, heres a number i'm gonna throw at you 14-14 and 2-0 thats zenyattas career record and the 2nd one is world championships!!!! ZENYATTA 2 RACHEL 0
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Nihilator (11/15/2009 11:43 PM)
Common Sense,
It is better to be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Quote from Jay Privman (DRF):
The Classic field is one of the deepest in the 26-year history of the Breeders' Cup
http://www.breederscup.com/content.aspx?id=43071
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common sense 101(CALIFORNIA)edition (11/15/2009 9:40 AM)
Mike what do all of those trainers have in common? THEY ARE ALL CALIFRONIA TRAINERS, OF COURSE THEY THINK THE CALIFORNIA HORSE TO GET IT. Also i have said this before and i will say it again, I NEVER THOUGHT THIS WAS A STRONG FIELD. Like i said people were claiming this was a strong field because it was the classic. also they were claiming it to be strong based of the names of the horses. But like i said if you look at the CURRENT FORM of this field you would see that its not. Heck only Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, and Rip Van Winkle had mutiple G1 wins this yr. So all im saying is that dont say its a strong field because if the name of the race.
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