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BC Mile: Greg Calabrese
A throwback to the days of when the grandstands were packed. His trade is picking winners and the method is existential handicapping. Aqueduct is home. Power Cap Blog.
Proud member of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.

Posted: Wednesday, November 04, 2009   


MORE FROM BC MILE: GREG CALABRESE...
November 2:  Mile pre-entries

Is Goldikova vulnerable?

Is Goldikova vulnerable in the Breeders' Cup Mile? In any horse race all horses are just a stumble or poor trip away from losing. Surely Goldikova is not immune from these basic tenets of horse racing.  However Goldikova holds a very strong hand for the B.C. Mile. Many of the unknowns are accounted for here, she has proven class, she loves the trip and this filly is proven over the course. Just about all of the unknown factors are accounted for, thus confidence flourishes for those backing Goldikova.  She is the type of horse that could anchor wagers like the pick 4 or pick 6.

Some are pointing to her last race at Longchamp "Prix de la Foret" -which was a loss- as proof that she is vulnerable. This was a group I sprint that was run in blazing time. I see a filly that got hooked early in a sprint speed duel, kicked clear 600 meters out and was headed near the wire while yielding grudgingly. It is a game try and trying is half the battle. I have yet to see any other horse entered in this B.C. Mile display anywhere near the turn of foot that Goldikova wields. This loss may help solidify Peslier's strategy; it is unlikely that Goldikova is going to get hooked into any speed duel.

With such a dominant presence in the race, it is not the type of race to go probing for a longshot.  Longshot expeditions will likely yield better returns in other races. This is the race to admire a brilliant champion filly and capitulate to her dominance.



Gladiatorus Up Close

Gladiatorus is a horse with a winning record. Any horse that can win 10 out of 16 is a real racehorse that knows his vocation, and performs admirably for his human masters. This is a horse that races for the powerful Godolphin stable- a yard that is world class and trains the best horses in the world. He has won four races this year. He flourished in the deserts of Dubai, he can expect similar conditions in the arid climate of California. At double digit odds what is not to like about Gladiatorus?

Gladiatorus is a horse that will have to be very lucky to make his way into the winners circle at Santa Anita. He is a "need the lead" horse that has been clear and loose on the lead in all of his wins. With American speedsters like Cowboy Cal and Karelian entered, he is likely to face massive amounts of pressure on the lead. Massive pressure is the classic foil to a horse like Gladiatorus. This pressure is going to make it all but impossible for him to resist the turn of foot of Goldikova and then hold off the closing charge of Justenuffhumor. A common race against Goldikova is provided below; it is damning evidence as Goldikova quickens, Gladiatorus has no response. The best case scenario of Gladiatorus is hanging on for third but I see him out of the frame.

Review of Gladiatorus' races this year

Great form in Dubai while going unchallenged early 




Common race versus Goldikova



Justenuffhumor Up Close

While this race has a formidable favorite in Goldikova there are other horses in here with a chance. Chief among those horses is Justenuffhumor; Godolphin's best shot at the winners circle in this race. If you like the breeding side of the game this horse is from a successful family with Champion Dreaming Of Anna and graded stakes winner Lewis Michael both siblings.

Justenuffhumor has compiled an extraordinary resume this year. He compiled six consecutive scores at four different racetracks. If somehow Goldikova stumbles or finds bad racing luck-never out of the question in this game- Justenuffhumor could come roaring from off the pace and be the one to pick up the pieces late. Zero in on how Justenuffhumor scored at 9 furlongs in the Baruch Stakes embed below. A closer that can kick strongly to the wire at 9 furlongs can usally kick even stronger at 1 mile; he ran the last 16th in 10 and change(per DRF formulator software) in the Baruch. The pace figures to be genuine in the Breeders' Cup Mile which makes Justenuffhumor's late kick a powerful weapon.

The knock on Justenuffhumor will be based on the non-effort in the Shadwell Mile. This is a race I feel very comfortable just drawing a line right through like it never happened. There was little to no pace in the Shadwell, combine that with the soft going and Justenuffhumor's fate was sealed. One thing we have observed this year is Justenuffhumor's antics at the gate. In the past he has thrown a fit, refused to load and has carried on with fractious hysterics once loaded. These transgressions have not affected his performance- in fact he was quite composed before the Shadwell and did not run his race. So a paddock performance of bad behavior that continues to the post parade may not equate to a poor performance for Justenuffhumor. He is the right hedge bet for those that want to have additional coverage beyond Goldikova, and he might be the right price horse if accepting 7-5 on Goldikova is not your taste.

Justenuffhumor's Video PP's





Link To Fourstardave Handicap



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