What impact might this have on the already reduced (size wise) field for the Ladies’ Classic?  It could actually become a more favorable betting race.

Consider for a moment how wide open the entire affair begins to look once you take the queen out of the equation.  With Zenyatta here, most bettors would treat the race as a “free square” – especially in the exotic wagers.  With Zenyatta out, the race becomes a difficult equation to confidently predict. 

As of this writing, the entries set up like this: 

• Careless Jewel
• Cocoa Beach
• Lethal Heat
• Life is Sweet
• Mushka
• Music Note
• Proviso
• Rainbow View
• Zenyatta

Assuming for a moment that Zenyatta does not race in the Ladies’ Classic, we’d be down to 8 horses.  A potential further reduction could occur should owner George Strawbridge JR. and trainer John Godsen decide to run the talented 3-year-old Rainbow View in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.  That would leave us with 7 contenders to deal with – but still not exactly an easy race to crack.

Of the remaining horses not named Zenyatta or Rainbow View, bettors are most likely to focus on the exploits of Music Note and Careless Jewel as they make their way to the windows this Friday.  In my mind, Music Note would have to be considered the favorite by virtue of her 3^rd place finish in this race last year over the Santa Anita Pro Ride and consecutive Grade 1 victories this year in the Beldame and the Ballerina in New York.

Several posts ago, I jokingly made reference to the fact that Careless Jewel might be the “sacrificial pace” for Zenyatta to run at in the Ladies’ Classic.  With Zenyatta out of the race, and with speed holding up decently around two turn races at Santa Anita, the freakish 3-year-old daughter of Tapit suddenly makes quite a bit of sense here.  Bettors will also be soothed by her proven ability over synthetics at Woodbine.

Lethal Heat has run well over the Pro Ride against both the boys and Zenyatta, so the fact that she’ll (likely) face neither in the Ladies’ Classic gives bettors something to consider.  Yes, she has a propensity to finish 2^nd or 3^rd in big races, and you have to go back to a 7 furlong stakes victory last summer at Del Mar to find her last victory, but she should still be a factor here for trainer Barry Abrams.

Similar to the saga of Lethal Heat is that of Zenyatta’s stable mate Life is Sweet. When she’s not facing Zenyatta or the boys, she’s rock solid. In fact, she’s 3 for her last 3 over the Pro Ride in those conditions.  She’ll certainly have some pace to run at thanks to the presence of Careless Jewel, but her last 3 efforts have her looking like one of the longer shots on the board. 

Amazingly, despite the small field size, note that we’re only now getting around to talking about last year’s 2^nd place finisher; Cocoa Beach.  The daughter of Doneralie Court was coming into last year’s Ladies’ Classic in a bit sharper form, as evidenced by her victory in the 2008 Beldame.  This year she has yet to earn a graded stakes victory, but has still given a decent account of herself in every effort.  The two times she’s tried the Santa Anita Pro Ride, she’s run into the monster we call Zenyatta, and all things considered those might have been two of her best efforts.  Just keep that in mind when sizing her up against this field.

Even the less heralded horses in this race, and here we’re talking specifically about Proviso and Mushka, bring with them some curiosity. Obviously these two still have a score to settle following their battle (and the ultimate DQ of Proviso) at Keeneland in the Spinster.  

Personally, I think the best thing to do in times like this is to keep things as simple as possible.  If the connections of Zenyatta or Rainbow View opt for the Ladies’ Classic, I think you have to make them the obvious plays. If both camps opt to run their horses elsewhere, then I think you have to focus on Music Note and Careless Jewel, with Music Note charging gamely in an attempt to nail the speedy Careless Jewel at the wire in what should be a thrilling finish.  I’ll be rooting for the 3-year-old Careless Jewel should this materialize, but that’s just me. Underneath, you’d probably want to keep Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach around on the bottoms of your tickets.  

The prices may not be stratospheric, but they are bound to be an improvement on the 1/9 odds we’d likely encounter if Zenyatta attempts to repeat as Ladies’ Classic champion.