"Human subtlety will never devise an invention more beautiful, more simple or more direct than does Nature, because in her inventions, nothing is lacking and nothing is superfluous. Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication."
-- Italian Renaissance humanist Leonardo da Vinci
In horse racing, there is nothing simpler or more naturally pure than a sprinter. Unadulterated speed, not meted out judiciously over long distances, but fleetingly.
On Friday, a field of nine goes postward for the G1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mary Sprint, and while so much ink had been spilt leading up to this and all of the Breeders' Cup races, Leonardo's quote reminds me as well of another adage: "Keep It Simple, Stupid." Ignore the fact that this is THE Breeders' Cup and simply handicap like it was any other race.
With that in mind, Ventura and Informed Decision immediately stick out in this field, based on their experience and current form.
Last year's Filly & Mare Sprint winner Ventura has twice taken on males this year, narrowly missing by a nose to Gio Ponti in the G1 Kilroe Mile, and then winning the G1 Woodbine Mile last out. How good is that form? Gio Ponti subsequently won three of four G1 races, including the G1 Arlington Million. Informed Decision has won 5 of 6 races this year, including a head-length victory over Ventura in the G1 Madison back in April. Both love the seven-furlong distance, maintain their regular jockeys (Garrett Gomez and Julien Leparoux, respectively), and have good post positions. While Ventura lost in their only previous meeting, Informed Decision has never raced over Santa Anita's Pro-Ride. It's virtually impossible to separate them, although I give Ventura the edge, having all that previous California experience and looking so strong.
All the other runners have niggling issues. Game Face failed to place in her only previous try on an artificial surface, plus her races at the beginning of the year were superior performances to those more recently. Lightly-raced Free Flying Soul is a toss-out since, breaking from post 1, she'll likely have to be on pace early; she's never run beyond six-and-a-half furlongs and never even run in an graded stakes race before. She's just not that fast. A surprising third to Zenyatta in last year's G1 Vanity, Silver Swallow has defeated Free Flying Soul twice this year, but only won once—an optional claiming race back in April.
The remaining runners all have some upside that bodes well for a top-four finish, or even a possible upset. Let's begin with the 3-year-olds.
The last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise has only run twice this year, but both were fast efforts, the last being a narrow loss to the professional Indian Blessing. She's never run over an artificial surface, but recorded stellar works at Santa Anita leading into this race. She's also making a jockey change, to Frankie Dettori which can be good and bad. If she can handle the surface, she's a threat for the exotics.
European-raced Only Green served as Goldikova's "rabbit" this year so expect her go to the lead. She's never won group race, but appears to prefer this distance, has won over artificial and turf surfaces, and gets Lasix for the first time. A bit of an unknown factor, but probably not mature enough.
There's no issue of surface or distance for Evita Argentina; she just has a problem of consistency. She beat (slow) males in the G2 San Vicente back in February, won the G2 A Gleam in July, but finished well back in her last effort. Something in my gut just tells me she can spring a big race, but I don't think she's fast enough to beat Ventura.
The remaining competitor is the other Godolphin filly, Seventh Street. She's a multiple G1 winner, mostly run in route races this year, with enough early speed. While never raced on all-weather or turf surfaces, she's a daughter of Street Cry whose other famous daughter Zenyatta takes on the boys in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday. Rajiv Maragh stays aboard, which I really like, and she demonstrates a favorite handicapping angle: cutting back in distance off her last effort. She may be third pick on the morning line, but her stablemate Sara Louise is the likely "wise guy" choice, so I expect her odds to drift upward, maybe in the 7-1 or 8-1 range at post time. That makes her my longshot pick to flesh out the trifecta, and possibly second behind Ventura.
Who do you like and why?