Shocking defeats are as much a part of the road to the Kentucky Derby as they are the road to the Final Four. And we were treated to a doozy Saturday when War Pass backed up through the field of the Tampa Bay Derby.
It is fun, but pointless, to speculate about the reasons for the loss. Was War Pass compromised by trouble at the start? Was he exposed as a need-the-lead type? Did he dislike the track? Was he sick? We can all have opinions, but none of us can know, at least for now.
For War Pass fans, I think the thing you want to see next is a sharp work or two, some positive comments from Nick Zito proclaiming a fit and healthy horse and, most of all, a properly aggressive move in race choice. Since War Pass was tentatively being pointed to the Wood Memorial all along, you want to see Zito stay that course.
Holy Bull, Afleet Alex and Devil’s Bag all turned in notorious flops during their 3-year-old campaigns. Holy Bull and Afleet Alex overcame them. Devil’s Bag never really did.
Holy Bull’s Fountain of Youth debacle was followed up by a tour de force in the Florida Derby. Afleet Alex made convincing amends for his Rebel in the Arkansas Derby. Devil’s Bag’s Flamingo folly caused Woody Stephens to run him back in a $25,860 overnight race, and the Derby Trial after that before the horse was finally retired.
Three examples do not make a statistically significant sample, but sometimes trainer moves are the only tea leaves available to read.
When Zito does decide upon a next race for War Pass, it will further define the “personalities” of the various prep races this year. Based on timing, distance and surface, each Derby prep offers a unique array of pros and cons for a trainer.
This week’s Lane’s End Stakes is a bit of a tweener, or “bracketbuster” if you will. It’s too far from the Derby, timewise, for many to want to use it as a final prep. But it’s not far enough away from the Derby for trainers to comfortably slip an additional pre-Derby race into a horse’s schedule. Hence, the top level prospects seem to be bypassing the event this year. But whoever wins it will suddenly have $300,000 in beautiful graded stakes money. Expect that horse to make his next start in Louisville—the six-week break be damned.
The Florida Derby is something of a gambler’s prep, which is fitting, perhaps, given the existence of a casino now at Gulfstream. Does a million dollars excite you? Are you feelin’ lucky? Then enter the Florida Derby, play pill pull roulette and pray like hell that you draw posts one through four. The one big consolation prize here is that second money is $200,000 which, by itself, should get you into the big dance. A horse like Elysium Fields has some graded earnings already, and if he were to run third or a good fourth, he’d probably still be fine. (And if you run worse than fourth in one of these things, you’re probably not going on to Louisville anyway.) But if you’re Big Brown or Face the Cat or Tomcito, you better bring your “A” game to this race -- and your rabbit’s foot to the post position draw.
The Illinois Derby is somewhat like a small conference tournament. There’s an automatic bid at stake, but the competition tends to be a bit weaker, and it’s seldom that an “at-large bid” is extended to the runners up.
The Santa Anita Derby is like the Pac 10 tournament. The select group of horses are all based in the West, there probably won’t be more than one Oregon State-like slouch in the field, and there will be multiple competitors going on to compete for the big prize four weeks later. It will be interesting to see if Georgie Boy turns around in three weeks for this race. If so, he and Colonel John and El Gato Malo make for an interesting trio. Actually I was impressed by all three of the top finishers in the San Felipe. They were all stretch out sprinters, yet they all appeared to rate comfortably, and they finished 1-2-3, well ahead of their supposedly more long winded foes. And maybe it was again a function of the racing strip out there, but the last 2 ½ furlongs of the race was the fastest portion of the race. We’ve grown used to that in these synthetic races, I suppose, but did we really expect to see the same phenomenon from Georgie Boy, Gayego and Bob Black Jack at a mile and a sixteenth? I didn’t. It would be really interesting to see how any of the three might fare in a nine-furlong Derby prep on regular dirt where their natural speed could be flattered a bit more.
The Toyota Blue Grass, to me, is like the Maui Invitational. It’s a nice environment, and you’d like to win, but it’s not imperative. A lot of big name winners come to this, most of whom have their Derby credentials locked up. So far, the Louisiana Derby winner, the Fountain of Youth winner and possibly the Gotham winner have picked out this spot. If they lay an egg in the Blue Grass, it can always be chalked up to the Polytrack or the slow pace of the race. After all, the logic will go, Street Sense didn’t win last year’s Blue Grass, and it didn’t hurt him in Louisville. Meanwhile you get a “conditioning” race under your belt, and a short ship for the Derby. And if an under-the-radar synthetic-lover wants to come in, take all the money and proceed to the Derby, more power to him. This is the “I’m okay, you’re okay” feel-good Derby prep.
The Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby? If you like old school, these two are for you. One is $750,000, the other a million. One is four weeks out from the Derby, one three weeks. They’re both a mile and an eighth on dirt. Inside posts are typically preferable but outside posts are not a death sentence. There’s room at these two inns for established stars and upstarts, alike. And much like the Big East and SEC tournaments, the top finishers often go on to achieve great things later on.
Good luck filling out your brackets. For both college basketball and the 3-year-olds .