I know what you’re probably saying to yourself right now:

As if handicapping the Breeders’ Cup wasn’t tough enough already, now we have to deal with rain and the muddy mess it will leave behind.

In light of the heavy rains that Monmouth Park will see this weekend, the strategy for betting the Breeders’ Cup, for some, has absolutely changed. Instead of just going on class, pace, speed figures and whatever other tool that we use to handicap, we now need to take into consideration whether or not a horse will take to a muddy track or soft turf course.

Well, to some extent that is definitely true. In many cases past performances can tell us whether or not a horse has done well over an off surface. The problem is, none of us know for sure if a horse will like the off course at Monmouth on that particular days, at this particular track. I’ve read many of the trainers’ comments over the past few days. Most of them don’t even know how their horse will react.

My strategy? Take the off surface into consideration, but don’t put too much emphasis on it. Stick with the one thing that we do know – current form. That is the lost reliable way of knowing whether a horse is sitting on a big race. If he or she doesn’t take to the track, well, there is nothing we can do about it. But in many cases, if a horse is running well, they will give you a good shot – no matter what the surface.

With that being said, here are a few of my top picks for Saturday:

Juvenile Fillies: In the juvenile routes, I always like horses that have tried the 1 1/16-mile at least once. The experience of two turns in a classy race like this is a major factor. My top pick here is A to the Croft (14), despite the outside post. She has tried three straight graded stakes, all of them competitive, and she finishes well.

In my exactas I will also include Tasha’s Miracle (3), Indian Blessing (4), and Proud Spell (10).

Juvenile: Again, despite the poor post position, I think the horse running best here is Wicked Style (13). The distance suits him and he has a lot of upside. Tale of Ekati (10) may be the most talented one here, but because he has not been tested over the distance, I’ll use him underneath. Old Man Buck (9) is my longshot.

Sprint: I have to go with Idiot Proof (7) here. He is proven over the track, has really never given a poor effort and is training great. Smokey Stover (1) and Greg’s Gold (10) will also be included in exotics.

Distaff: I like Lady Joanne (5), for no other reason that she tries every time. The filly has been on the board all 10 of her races and has won six. I can see her trying to hold off Unbridled Belle (11) and/or Octave (8) down the stretch.

Turf: I like English Channel (6) in a narrow victory over Dylan Thomas (7) and Better Talk Now (3). Talk about a consistent horse, the 5-year-old English Channel is always right there and he has a big heart. Did you see the rail move he made in the Turf Classic? It was gutsy.

Classic: Great race. It could be any of six horses and I wouldn’t be surprised. But for me, Any Given Saturday (3) is running best right now. He is clearly a different colt that he was in the spring. He has matured and loves the track. I’ll take Any Given Saturday over Lawyer Ron (1), Street Sense (2) and Awesome Gem (6).