It’s time again Saturday for one of my favorite handicapping days of the year—the Claiming Crown.  It’s like a blue-collar Breeders’ Cup, run on a very fair-playing dirt track at Canterbury Park. Unlike typical races, in which maybe one or two horses are shipping in from elsewhere, the majority of horses are shippers at the Claiming Crown. That places a premium on good speed figures, and/or correctly evaluating which horses are exiting the strongest races. As a whole, the Claiming Crown horses obviously don’t compare in quality to Breeders’ Cup horses, but many of the basic concepts that make the Breeders’ Cup the most intriguing wagering weekend of the year apply just as strongly to Claiming Crown. And last year, the day’s featured event, the $150,000 Claiming Crown Jewel, actually produced a Breeders’ Cup winner later in 2009 when Furthest Land took the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Oak Tree.  So maybe the gap is narrowing ever so slightly.

One thing that jumps out about this year’s Claiming Crown is the relative absence of super-imposing 4-5 shots in this year’s fields. That could make for some rewarding betting races. Here is my best guess of how this melting pot of East, West, North and South will shake out:

Race 4, Claiming Crown Iron Horse

The Steve Asmussen trainee, SEA GAZE, has won 9 of his last 11 against horses as good or better than these.  Asmussen also owns the horse, so I doubt he is shipping to Minnesota for the corn dogs. OK, so maybe a short-priced favorite WILL kick off the Claiming Crown series in this mile-and-a-sixteenth test. The main danger is ROARING HOME, who is a fresh claim by Maggi Moss/Chris Richard. He comes off a career best on July 3, so a bounce is possible, but he is dangerous when allowed to stroll on the lead, which might be the case today.  The locally-based MITHRANDIR always tries hard and will be picking up pieces late. 

Race 5, Claiming Crown Express

MORALIST’s last four starts all came in turf sprints, and in three of those races, he was very competitive against Chamberlain Bridge and Silver Timber, who are only two of the best grass sprinters in the country.  But Moralist has always seemed equally adept on dirt as on turf.  Unless he has suddenly decided he only likes to sprint on grass, he will be very tough in here. ESPERAMOS has run excellent races while stepping up in class in each of his last three.  That’s a sign of a sharp horse.  CAPE HATCHET may be facing slightly tougher here, but he has won seven of his last eight, with the only loss coming at the hands of win-machine Ready’s Rocket.

Race 6, Claiming Crown Glass Slipper

Last year in the Glass Slipper, Margie Marie and Miranda Diane helped create an insane 21.1, 44.2 pace that set things up for the closers.  And this year, Margie Marie and Miranda Diane are back.  MY IRISH GIRL comes here on a four-race winning streak, and last time she blew away a decent two-other-than allowance field at Penn National by six lengths.  She has a versatile running style, and I like that she is the only three-year-old in the field, which could mean that she still might have more upside.  HAWAIIAN SKY ships in from Indiana Downs for Tom Amoss and Maggi Moss. She’s won three in a row, including an allowance and an optional claimer, and she also likes to close.  She would be no shock, but my win money is going on the three-year-old here. KATHLEEN L has not raced since April 24, but this Hawthorne shipper is a solid allowance horse in Illinois and figures to benefit from a disputed pace.

Race 7, Claiming Crown Rapid Transit

HUMBLE SMARTY is in career-best form now.  He has won five of his last seven, and in the two losses mixed in to that recent record, he was compromised by blazing paces both times.  There is surprisingly little early speed signed on for this Rapid Transit, and Humble Smarty is poised to take advantage of that. Can stalk and pounce from post 10. RED PETE is better than his two recent fifth-place finishes might look on paper. Last out, he was only a couple of lengths behind Coach Jimi Lee, and two races back, he was within three lengths at the end of EZ Dreamer.  Those are two solid sprinters, and Red Pete will be delighted to not see horses of that caliber in the gate on Saturday.  Since switching to the Jamie Ness barn, SWEETEN WITH GOLD has been a model of consistency, finishing first or second in his last six starts.  Post 11 hurts, but a representative effort Saturday puts him in the thick of this.

Race 8, Claiming Crown Emerald

Entering 2007, trainer Mike Maker had zero Claiming Crown wins—now he has five.  INCA KING is the first of his two entrants on the day, and he comes in off a close third in the Grade II Firecracker at Churchill, where he finished ahead of Mine That Bird among others.  Off his current form, he is probably just better than the others in this bulky field of 12.  ELUSIVE SCHEMES is less experienced on grass than most of these.  But in his second most recent turf start, way back in November 2008, he blew away an allowance field at Turf Paradise by nine lengths and earned an 89 Beyer.  Because that race was so long ago, it won’t show up in the DRF PPs, but don’t say you weren’t warned.  More recently, has been knocking heads on the dirt at Emerald Downs against the fine stakes runners Noosa Beach and Assessment.  This horse is very sneaky.  GRAN ESTRENO won this event last year, and immediately went on to take the Grade III Washington Park Handicap at Arlington.  However, he seems like he is not coming in to Saturday’s race as sharp as he was for last year’s renewal.

Race 9, Claiming Crown Jewel

MY FRIEND NEV has been perfect in four dirt starts for Jamie Ness, including a 100 Beyer earned going a two-turn seven furlongs in a $100,000 stakes at Charles Town last time out.  In that race, My Friend Nev upset heavy favorite Russell Road, who is no slouch.  Distance is the main question for him in this nine-furlong race, but three-back, Nev won a mile race by five lengths.  RACING BRAN finished second, just two or so scoops behind Shadowbdancing in the Grade II Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows last time.  His Beyers are good, he’s run against strong horses like Win Willy and Gone Astray earlier this year, and distance may be less a question for him than the other main contenders in here.  But he will probably have to improve upon the 92 Beyer he got in the Cornhusker if he wants to win today.  HEADACHE is Maker’s other horse in today.  He popped a 101 Beyer when running against Battle Plan back in February at Gulfstream, but has failed to win in four subsequent starts at the non-winners-of-two-other-than allowance level. 

Race 10, Lady Canterbury Stakes

This open, one-mile, $100,000 grass stakes for older females is a delicious dessert on the Claiming Crown menu.  No one in this wide open, 11-horse field will be a shock, but I’ll go with NEVER RETREAT from the sharp grass barn of Chris Block in Chicago.  A repeat of his last grass effort back in March behind Tizaqueena in the Bayou Handicap should get the job done.  DANCIN PERFECT has finished behind Never Retreat twice, but he ships from Louisiana for this, and the mile should hit her between the eyes.  DANZON is the likely favorite with Leparoux, and coming off three straight grass wins, including the Grade III Locust View at Churchill.  But post 11 hurts, and even without the post, she does not possess any particular edge over these anyway.  GOOD LUCK!