Admittedly, thoughts of “the next” Triple Crown winner danced in my head as Barbaro sailed through the final yards of Saturday's 132nd Kentucky Derby. But are those still-dancing thoughts more classical, time-tested merengue and waltz steps or the fly-by-night types like the electric slide or the macarena? The dancefloors at Pimlico and Belmont will tell the tale.
Hey, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones, do you mind if Barbaro cuts in?
What separates Barbaro from those two most-recent Triple Crown aspirants of repute are the dance partners. In jockey Edgar Prado, Barbaro carries the weight of a rider already residing in superstardom. Neither Funny Cide nor Smarty Jones had such a fortunate and talented pairing.
Jose Santos, rider of Funny Cide, long has been considered one of America's most overrated “big name” riders by those who follow the game closely. In fact, you'll find more racing regulars who call him Jose “The Strangler” than Jose Santos. Funny Cide was not an easy mount to control at Belmont. In fact, I recall standing along the rail of the winner's circle that rainy Belmont Stakes Day, shoulder to shoulder with jockey Richard Migliore, who did not have a mount in the race. As Funny Cide motored down the backstretch, I asked “Mig” how he thought the horse was moving as we watched the jumbotron. The veteran rider was worried from the get-go, repeatedly telling me during the race, “He won't settle; Jose has to fight him.”
Meanwhile Smarty Jones' co-pilot, Stewart Elliott, has never been considered more than a solid, everyday, regional rider - and forever to be known as the guy who took the bait in the Belmont and ended up the goat. Elliott's mid-race impatience at Belmont won't soon be forgotten. Veteran riders like Jerry Bailey and Alex Solis had Smarty Jones swimming upstream the entire way, and Elliott wound up taking the fall.
Edgar Prado, however, gives Barbaro the best chance of any rider in the world to take down the Triple Crown. Consider that Prado absolutely dominated the Pimlico racing scene from 1990-'99, winning no less than 14 - count 'em 14 - meet titles as that track's leading jockey. No rider before or since has dominated Old Hilltop in such a fashion. And now that he's transplanted his career to New York, Prado has continued his dominant ways against the best jockey colony on the east coast.
And let us not forget: it was Prado-piloted runners Sarava and Birdstone that denied the Triple Crown dreams of War Emblem in 2002 and Smarty Jones in 2004. In short, no active jockey is better-equipped for the 1-1/2 miles over Belmont Park's “Big Sandy” than Edgar Prado.
It takes a special horse to win the Kentucky Derby in the manner that Barbaro displayed on the first Saturday in May. The stumble to his knees out of the starting gate was the same type of misstep that toasted War Emblem in the 2002 Belmont. Instead, Barbaro took it (literally) in stride, raced back into early contention and went about his merry business of trashing what many considered the strongest Derby field in recent memory. Prado asked for very little effort in the final furlong, which bodes well for future dance cards.
The obvious question coming into the Preakness will be the 180-degree change in timing from Barbaro's pre-Derby campaign. With just one race in 13 weeks before the Derby, trainer Mike Matz's horse-of-a-lifetime proved that he runs like a world-beater with sufficient rest and spacing between races. Now, the calendar provides zero friendship. In a mere 14 days, he'll be asked to run a race equally as tough to be sure. It was a similar timing fate that bested 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, who like Barbaro, won the Derby in his sixth career start for a conservative (albeit Hall of Fame) trainer in Neil Drysdale.
Most would argue that the Derby's 20-horse field makes it a tougher race than the Preakness. But given Barbaro's Louisville trip, he did not have to worry about 14 or 15 of the Derby horses at any point in the race. Great horses put themselves in perfect positions, and it's a testament to Barbaro that he could shrug off 75 percent of the Derby field with little effort. In Baltimore, though, the two or three horses in front of him early won't be insane speedballs like Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister, but rather tough guys like Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron. And this time, the pace figures to be solid, but considerably more sane, and all the while, the front-end opponents more stiff to run past. So even with fewer starters, Barbaro's next test won't get any easier - rather it very well will be his toughest of his career.
Given his superior pedigree, brilliant cruising-speed, running style and additional rest time, the Belmont Stakes figures to be Barbaro's easiest of the three Triple Crown races. Should he succeed at Pimlico, it's hard to envision a scenario that melts down his chance at the Triple Crown trophy in New York. After all, he's got Edgar Prado on his back this time.
Closing The Roses
Some final thoughts worth noting for Kentucky Derby 132 ... All-time record wagering handles for Oaks and Derby Day, not to mention a record-breaking Thursday crowd at Churchill Downs, signify that the big-event day is stronger than ever. It's a trend true in all entertainment forums in today's multi-option society, from the box office to the diamond to the gridiron. Racing fans and execs shouldn't be surprised it's that way as well ... Jockeys-turned-broadcasters Gary Stevens and Jerry Bailey both excelled in their Triple Crown debuts, with Stevens showing on-air polish well beyond his years - even for a silver screen veteran. Despite the stellar performances by those on NBC and ESPN, Charlsie Cantey was missed. I'm sure millions of women around the country wondered where she was after so many years as the face of Derby television. The racing industry should properly recognize her contributions to bringing the game's most visible race to the masses in a classy manner for more than two decades ... The next time you hear trainers talk about how fast their horses are, don't ever forget that the jockey controls everyone's destiny. For all the Sharp Humor/Sinister Minister talk of who would outbreak whom, Patrick Valenzuela reminded us why he's the most aggressive front-end rider of the modern era when he put Keyed Entry's tail in all their faces in the early going.
Jeremy Plonk is the editor of The HorsePlayer Magazine.
|