|
|
Breeders' Cup handicapping can frustrate as easily at it entices. For every life-changing payoff, a few hundred-thousand bottles of Excedrin get kicked to the curb by those who fail in their pursuit of handicapping's Holy Grail.
Feast or famine, there's simply no perfect recipe for success on Racing's Richest Day. Nonetheless, every ounce of our handicapping blood pumps and thumps for these eight races. Take a pass? Are you kidding me?
Decipher correctly, though, and the rewards are handsome. So what to do with 14-horse puzzles that appear impossible on paper? Here's one handicapper's recipe.
Step 1: Construct pace scenarios.
Pace always, repeat always, makes the race. People who sell you numbers and formulas may try to tell you differently, but they're self-serving their own wallets with your cash. Do yourself a favor and avoid them – especially on a day when horses are coming from 20 different tracks on multiple continents. Apples and oranges cannot be compared this way.
What we can count on is "intent." Jockeys and trainers place their horses in their perceived "comfort zones" repeatedly. Glance down the past performances, and nearly every horse will have a clear pattern of in-race placement – a lot of 1s and 2s obviously denote a horse who wants to go to the early lead; 9s and 10s drop back and bring the heat late.
It's really that simple. It's not about fractions and pace figures (unless you think humans and horses are robots). Look, horses are pack animals. They tend to run with the herd if left to their own devices. It's the humans who move them up or down the pace totem pole. I recall the press oogling over a dramatically fast three-furlong workout prior to the 1994 Breeders' Cup at Churchill. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas chuckled and cautioned that there wasn't a horse on the entire backstretch who couldn't run that fast for three furlongs if their trainers or exercise riders were dumb enough to do it. The horse, Lochsong, popped and stopped in the Sprint and ran last. Lesson learned.
It's not about judging if a horse is "fast enough" to make the lead. Truth is, at this level, all of them are capable. It's a matter of who wants it. And, with $2 million-plus purses all day, it's not a time to change tactics and test how a horse will take to it. The connections surely will go with what has worked best for their horses in the past and let the chips fall where they may.
Various handicapping resources use different notations for the types of running styles. I never bought into that stuff, because I already had developed my own simple approach more than a decade before I had computer technology to download such services. To me, only four positions exist for a horse during the race, and I label all horses either:
S -- Speed – they want to be on the lead, or will die trying to get it. P -- Press – they want to be just off the early pace, maybe 2-3 lengths. M -- Middle – they want to come from off-the-pace, but are not devoid of all early foot, ranging about 4-7 lengths behind early. C -- Closers – they fall back early, let the race shake out and then put in their effort in the stretch run. Horses who often are 8 lengths or more behind early fall into this group.
Sometimes you won't get a good line on a horse and be able to label appropriately. In those times, just admit that it's a question mark and put a question mark next to the horse's name. Sometimes you're torn whether they'll be one or the other. Simply mark them as both (M/C for midpack or closer). It's not exact science, but rather the art of handicapping.
Let's take a look at how I label this year's contenders for the Breeders' Cup Sprint:
| Pace* | Horse | Comment | | M | Areyoutalkintome | Farther back than usual vs. these. | | S | Attila's Storm | Led last year's BC and outbroke Henny in NY. | | S | Bordonaro | All 9 wins came when within ½ length lead. | | P/S | Commentator | Every single win was wire-to-wire, but 6F is shortest race of his career. | | M/C | Friendly Island | Best when pressing, but running longer lately. | | S/P | Henny Hughes | Doesn't have to have the lead, but has never shown he can be behind several horses. | | M | Kelly's Landing | Wants to let the race unfold ahead of him. | | C | Nightmare Affair | Better chance if they take back & not try to hang too close. | | P | Pomeroy | Every career in-the-money finish has been when he's within 2-3/4 lengths early. | | M/C | Siren Lure | Californians typically are quicker coming east, so he won't be a last-to-first type in this race. | | M/P | Thor's Echo | Great example of "intent" and "comfort zone" – usually in mix at any and all distances. | | P | Too Much Bling | Consistently a length off the early lead and wants a similar spot. | | M | War Front | Hasn't been able to keep up with Pomeroy and Henny Hughes of late when chasing. | *Pace They'll Get
What I like to do is map out the pace scenario across the page (shown below), which helps visualize how the race could shape up. After you place the horses by pace preference, list them in the order you think they'll be early on based on all your handicapping insights.
| Speed | Press | Middle | Closer | Atilla's Storm
Bordonaro
Henny Hughes | Commentator
Too Much Bling
Pomeroy | Thor's Echo
War Front
Siren Lure
Kelly's Landing
Areyoutalkintome
Friendly Island | Nightmare Affair |
Step 2: Bring them home.
Once you have the pace scenario in place, use all of your normal handicapping thought processes to envision the rest of the race. Does horse X typically back up when pressured? Who has the best finishing fractions? What do you think the trainer and jockey intent for the horse will be…are they longshots looking for a piece, or egomaniacs who think finishing second means you're the first loser? How do they fare head-to-head in past match-ups? Is this their best distance? Etc.
Atilla's Storm: 0-4 in graded stakes, faces world-class pace threats … can't envision a wire job when he's never done it before, much less against these horses. Maybe hold for fourth again like last year?
Bordonaro: has never backed way out of it, and showed he could ship out of town, winning at Oaklawn – a track that has been very productive with horses going to Churchill. Can keep going on best day.
Henny Hughes: he has never been passed in a sprint race…ever. Granted, this will be toughest test with Bordonaro and Atilla's Storm up front. Can't imagine he'll give way too much based on his final fractions.
Too Much Bling: Solid finisher in every start this year, hasn't backed up a bit. Should be in with a shot turning for home with a crack at the leaders.
Pomeroy: Best races are when he dictates more of the early action, and far too many "no bid" type of comments when he doesn't. If he's not 1-2 heading into the far turn, can't think he's going to drive home…and doesn't look like he'll be 1-2.
Commentator: Can't lead, can't finish. That's a bad, bad combination in a $5,000 claimer, much less the best sprint race in the world. Best hope is to absolutely gun for the lead and rely on his route class. Unless you think he's going to break on top, I'd look elsewhere.
Thor's Echo: Millionaire has made a career by being shipped to easier spots with big money on the line. That said, think "intent" here and figure that they'll be trying to get a share of this purse and not sacrifice the horse in pipedreams of victory. Figure he'll be mid-pack throughout and hope to get first run on speed horses. Nice horse for tris and supers.
War Front: Has lost ground in the stretch of his only two Grade 1 attempts, and does not show a propensity to pass horses.
Siren Lure: Jockey Alex Solis has had BC Sprint success brining Californian Kona Gold from off the pace, and this strong finisher fits that mold. He rallied essentially last-to-first out west, but fresh horses often break quicker than usual (he's been away more than 2 months). If he's within 5-6 lengths of the lead here like he normally is, he may not have the same punch. Predict the intent is that Solis will wrangle him back as far as the horse will let him. Could be in for a fight with more than just the opposition, and is not a closer that I'll be enamored with because it's not natural for him to just fall out of the gate and lope into stride.
Kelly's Landing: His best races are when he's 4-5 lengths off the lead, and certainly loves Churchill Downs. Repeated efforts lugging in, so don't be surprised if they try to rally up the fence and avoid that 4-5 wide move on the turn. Should have every chance turning for home to make noise.
Areyoutalkintome: 16-for-18 in the money at six furlongs, nearly always sitting off the pace a bit and picking off runners. $32,000 claim has made $800,000 since, so we're looking at a major over-achiever. Getting a piece of a $2 million purse would be a major coup and likely to be taken back and allowed to try and pick up some pieces. Like stablemate Thor's Echo in many regards – both exotics threats if "intent" is properly measured.
Friendly Island: Have to think that he wouldn't be in the race if Todd Pletcher had a legitimate Sprint hopeful. In fact, he was trying to make a Mile hopeful out of him last month, and that failed. He hasn't been near the lead sprinting since May and should be running uphill to keep up with these – with little finishing punch.
Nightmare Affair: After winning 4 straight in Florida from off the pace, he was closer to the lead in the Forego and flopped miserably. Expect a return to his best tactics, where he'll fall out of it early and try to pick up runners in the long stretch. Hard to envision he's the one to pass 13 for the big money, and there are too many good horses in front of him to think 3 or 4 won't survive and keep him from the dough.
Step 3: Put it together.
Now we've narrowed the field of 14 down to a manageable level. Bordonaro, Henny Hughes, Too Much Bling and Kelly's Landing are my legitimate win contenders based on the pace scenario and evaluation of their past performances. Longshots for the underside of the gimmicks are Thor's Echo and Areyoutalkintome, with a slight shot given to Attila's Storm for the bottom of tris and supers.
From this list – half the size of the original monstrosity – we'll put together our tickets. Separating the major contenders comes down to final workouts, perhaps post parade appearance, value on the toteboard and the like. Post position would be a consideration as well, though not in the six-furlong Sprint. Other than a presser drawing the 1-2 hole and having to gun harder than they'd like to maintain position, the Sprint draw won't mean much to my final selections.
My gut feeling several days out from the Sprint is that Commentator controls the fate of the speed horses. If he's used hard to battle early, then the speed group becomes too contentious to survive the scrum. If he's not part of the mix, then Bordonaro and Henny Hughes are fast enough and good enough to hold off any late runners after dispatching Attila's Storm. If Commentator throws down with the speedballs, then the lean will be to Too Much Bling and especially Kelly's Landing.
How will we know which way Commenator goes? Remember that word "intent." Listen for clues in trainer Nick Zito's raceweek quotes. Look for how far and how fast Commentator's final Breeders' Cup workouts are. A lightening-fast, short drill (three or four furlongs) will tip their hand. A slower, elongated move probably puts Commentator in the second flight early. A rank or sweaty horse in the pre-race could also signal that he'll bust out of the gate.
Step 4: Rinse, lather, repeat.
Only seven more races to go! Welcome to my handicapping world.
Jeremy Plonk is the editor of The HorsePlayer Magazine and HorsePlayerdaily.com.
|
|
|
|