America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Little Mike made the most of a fantastic trip and showed the ability to ration his speed in winning the Breeders' Cup Turf on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. (Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)

Fifteen races, a diverse set of results, and some remarkable Trakus data – so goes the weekend that was the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Santa Anita. In this voluminous blog, significantly longer than our normal contributions, we review notable data accumulated the amazing weekend. As usual, a primer below for those that may not have read an interpretation of Trakus data in the past.

We receive wildly divergent comments, mostly via Twitter, that the ground-loss statistics we offer are either fantastic or meaningless. Of course, we believe it depends, and the truth is probably in the middle. Some horses can lose ground and it does not impact their final finishing position or their ability to perform at peak conditions, while others struggle in such a setting. Some pundits claim that the energy expended by horses racing in tight quarters while saving ground is more damaging to a horse’s chances than racing in the clear, even though they lose ground. Regardless, there is no arguing that the shortest way around IS on the inside.

Through the Trakus-Adjusted Margins (TAMs), we extract a single variable (ground coverage in running) and identify the differences between horses based only on that variable. Thus, if a horse X covers 30 feet more than horse Y, and lost by only a half-length, we convert the number of extra feet covered to lengths and subtract that number from the true margin to arrive at the TAM. We readily recognize that the story is significantly more complex, but refute the criticism that such data is insignificant or irrelevant. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and racing data is up for interpretation by each handicapper/fan/analyst.

We offer various data below on from selected Breeders’ Cup races in no particular order.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

Shanghai Bobby (inside, above) looked to be coasting and flying away when passing the midpoint of the far turn, but as 2-year-olds are inclined to do, he waffled alone on the lead.  Trakus records the average miles per hour traveled by a horse within each segment (1/16^th of a mile). Below, we offer that data for the first three horses home in the thrilling Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. 

From the point of the three-sixteenths pole to the eighth pole, second- and third-place finishers He’s Had Enough and Capo Bastone went 1.9 and 2.3 mph faster than Shanghai Bobby, respectively. Jockey Rosie Napravnik implored focus and finish from her Harlan’s Holiday colt, getting him to respond and his average speed increased 2.2 mph faster from the eighth pole to the sixteenth pole. Over the trip from the five-sixteenths pole to the eighth pole, Shanghai Bobby’s average mph dropped by a gaudy 4.3 mph, while second-place finishing longshot He’s Had Enough dropped only 1.1 mph over the same distance. How this will impact the 2013 Kentucky Derby field is a different story, but the data is fascinating.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)

Ground loss matters, and it when it doesn’t, we’ll happily acknowledge it. Ryan Moore simply navigated the best trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf aboard George Vancouver, covering the least amount of ground in the full field of 14. As the chart below shows (see “TA Margin”), the second-, third-, fourth-, and seventh-place finishers (Noble Tune, Balance the Books, Dundonnell, and Lines of Battle) all covered more ground than their margins of defeat. 

Moore plotted an inside path and got the splits on George Vancouver, covering the trip in 5,313 feet and winning by 1.25 lengths.  The aforementioned competition covered 34, 26, 42, and 76 feet more than the winner, with Balance the Books clocking the second-fastest ¾-mile split, and the fastest final quarter and eighth splits in the race.

Breeders’ Cup Marathon (G3)

The wild singing and subsequent party from the Argentina-based connections of Calidoscopio (above, pulling away) was a Breeders’ Cup memory that will last forever. From a data standpoint, Calidoscopio proved what it takes to win the Marathon – a plodding, even tempo spread across the entire journey. Take note of the times provided for the finishing horses. 

The horses are listed in their finishing order, along with the times for their first six furlongs and their last six furlongs, followed by the differential between the two. Calidoscopio did not quicken, he just slowed significantly less than the competition.  Specifically, his last six furlongs were timed by Trakus in 1:16.91, which was 2.08 seconds faster than the next-fastest horse in the race (second-place finsher Grassy). More dramatically, Calidoscopio’s first six furlongs were only 1.33 seconds faster than his last six furlongs – 3.70 seconds faster than the second-fastest (Not Abroad – 5th) and 4.05 seconds faster than second-place finisher Grassy.

Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1)

Wise Dan established a new course mark in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, lowering the record set by Atticus in 1997, and carrying 126 pounds in the effort (Atticus carried 117). There is no doubting, this was a remarkable performance. We look to the individual sectional times of the remainder of the field. Animal Kingdom, well off the early gallop, ran a dazzling second quarter-mile of 22.30 seconds (which was only the third-fastest such sectional in the race after Moonlight Cloud’s borderline frantic 21.93 seconds). Blocked for room when closing in on the main pack, the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner ran a final two furlongs in 22.54 seconds (fastest in the race by 0.20 seconds) and a final furlong in 11.29 seconds (fastest by 0.11 seconds). 

It is also worth noting that Aidan O’Brien trainee Excelebration covered 20 feet more than Wise Dan, but lost by just two lengths.  That extra ground coverage equates to roughly 2.4 lengths, less than his margin of defeat. 

Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)

Fort Larned (abobe, inside) went to the front and stayed on all the way, holding Mucho Macho Man by the slightest of margins. Ground coverage in the Classic was certainly of interest, and also had us harkening back to the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings posted in this blog from Del Mar’s 2011 season and 2012 season. Mike Smith partnered Mucho Macho Man to a second-place finish, covering 31 feet more than Fort Larned. Breaking from post 11, it was conceivable that the Hall of Fame rider was going to get stuck wide for some portion of the journey. While there is no arguing that keeping his charge out of trouble was important, we note that Mucho Macho Man ran the equivalent of roughly 3.6 lengths more than the winner, the only horse in the race to sport a negative TAM.

Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)

Little Mike was brilliant … and consistent. Through six two-furlong segments of the 1 ½ mile-trip, Ramon Dominguez guided his mount through fractions that were within one second of each other. His fastest two-furlong segment came running down the hill, the second overall sectional, in 23.14 seconds and he finished the race with almost the exact same sectional time (23.20). Each two-furlong segment was no more than 0.98 seconds slower than Little Mike’s fastest sectional. No other horse in the race can claim such consistency, with the closest coming from Trailblazer, whose spread from his slowest sectional to his fastest was 1.46 seconds.

You will also notice below that Little Mike saved ground relative to the third-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishers, who each traveled 36, 47, and 44 feet more than the winner, and each of their final margins was less than the impact of their extra ground coverage. Only Point of Entry covered a trip shorter than the winner. Lost in the shuffle is that Little Mike’s stable companion Dullahan may have finished ninth beaten seven lengths, but he endured an overland journey which saw him cover 61 feet more than the winner. While these comparisons are always approximate, it is worth noting that 61 feet is roughly 7.2 lengths – just slightly more than his margin of defeat.

Overall Dirt Track Performance at Santa Anita

There was some immediate discussion across the press box on course, social media, and surely your conversations with fellow horseplayers, about how difficult passing seemed to be over the Santa Anita dirt track, especially on the outside. Was there a significant, noticeable bias? Conventional short-term memory has us thinking immediately to the front-running scores from Royal Delta and Fort Larned in the big races to suggest that speed and ground-saving was a massive factor, but that would be ignoring the performances of Groupie Doll (the only horse to win on dirt all weekend while covering the highest or second-highest trip in their respective race), Tapizar, and Shanghai Bobby. 

While the Juvenile winner did run most of the stretch on the rail, he lost ground on both turns and was seemingly in danger of blowing the far turn at one point before a Rosie Napravnik adjustment. Fifty percent (9/18) of the top two finishers in the nine dirt races over the two days covered either the shortest or second-shortest trip in their respective races. Seventy-seven percent of top two finishers (14/18) in those races fell in the shorter half of total ground coverage from their respective races. The aforementioned outliers were joined by The Lumber Guy, who covered the tenth-widest trip in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). One weekend of nine dirt races is hardly a confirmed trend or signifier that the track was particularly “biased.” The topic is one we will continue to study. 

As we say too often (to some): ground loss matters. The degrees of its impact vary, and the early indication is that working out a shorter trip does benefit at “The Great Race Place.” There is plenty of time between now and the next Breeders’ Cup in California to ponder it.