America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Dewey Square Photo courtesy of David Stephenson/Siena Farms

The trail to reach the Kentucky Derby (G1) is an arduous one, and this year’s new qualifying system puts greater value on races closer to May, with no focus on graded stakes earnings. Still, the ten points on the line this Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) do no justice to the high-quality field assembled for this $400,000 race, which includes last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Shanghai Bobby.

Trakus recorded data from the last race of nine out of ten runners in the Holy Bull, and we offer some extra flavor on select contenders in this anticipated event.

Frac Daddy (Post Position No. 2) and Dewey Square (Post Position No. 6) finished second and third, respectively, behind Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), the finale to their 2012 season. Both were strong in defeat, with Frac Daddy covering 27 feet more than Uncaptured and Dale Romans-trainee Dewey Square going 41 feet farther – both amounts of extra ground were more than their margins of defeat. As to which horse was faster – the answer is Dewey Square, but barely. Over the course of the 1 1/16 miles, Dewey Square averaged 37.1 mph compared with 37.0 mph for Frac Daddy and 36.9 mph for the winner. Read more about the data from the Kentucky Jockey Club in our previous blog.

Sr. Quisqueyano (Post Position No. 5) ran on to be second after a blistering pace in the Gulfstream Park Derby when Itsmyluckyday (Post Position No. 7) galloped off impressively. While Sr. Quisqueyano may have been wide on the far turn, he covered as much ground as Itsmyluckyday, who averaged a half-mile per hour faster (38.5 mph v. 38.0 mph). Comparing average speeds from the Gulfstream Park Derby with the Kentucky Jockey Club is an impossible task, and one we don’t suggest as the former was run around one turn and the latter run around two turns. 

Tulira Castle (Post Position No. 8) and Fredericksburg (Post Position No. 9) both are emerging from a handy allowance test in early December at Gulfstream, having completed the exacta in that order. Fredericksburg covered about three-quarters of a length more than Tulira Castle in running, and both ran slower, based on average sectional speeds recorded by Trakus, than the Gulfstream Park Derby. 

As for the reigning Eclipse Award champion, Shanghai Bobby put forth some incredible data in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. We detailed the specifics in this post-Breeders’ Cup blog, but basically, Shanghai Bobby idled on the lead when he got there. He averaged 34.3 mph from the five-sixteenths pole to the quarter-pole, and slowed to average 32.5 mph and 31.5 mph in the segments that progressed to the three-sixteenths pole and the eighth-pole. He re-broke for Rosie Napravnik, and hung on for a narrow win. How he progresses in his first start at three will be a fascinating subject out of the race.

SHANGHAI BOBBY BATTLING BACK TO WIN JUVENILE

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Any way you look at it, an exciting renewal of the Holy Bull looms. Good luck!

$400,000 Holy Bull Stakes  (G3)

Race 10, Saturday, 5:05 p.m. EST

3YOs, 1 1/16 miles