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Blog - GAMBLING

(Photo courtesy Eclipse Sportswire)

Handicapping always involves some sort of risk because there are surely no guarantees in racing.

What helps, though, is putting the odds in your favor.

Given a choice, there’s usually less risk in backing a sharp horse stepping up in company than a horse in poor form stumbling down the claiming ladder.

A good example came in the sixth race at Gulfstream Park on March 6.

Haverhill entered that race off two promising starts at the meet.

On Jan. 16, in his first start since shipping in from Woodbine, he ran second by 3 ½ lengths in a race limited to $20,000 claimers. It was certainly an improved effort for the 5-year-old gelding who had been claimed for $16,000 off a fourth-place finish in its previous start at Woodbine by trainer Katherina Vassilieva.

What happened next reflected Vassilieva’s confidence in her new runner. She entered Haverhill in a tougher $25,000 optional claimer, putting the son of Saffir up against allowance competition. The result then was an even better performance, a length and a half runner-up finish at 12-1 odds.

The payoff came on March 6. Entered in the same $25,000 optional claimer, Haverhill’s improving form resulted in a lopsided 9-length victory and a square $7.40 return for his backers.

The lesson: Pay attention when a trainer shows confidence in a horse. If a horse displays an ability to handle a tougher challenge it usually indicate a form cycle that’s worth following.

HAVERHILL'S MARCH 6 CHART


Ehalt Inside

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En Español 

Translated by Anthony Gutierrez, Edited by Jose Acevedo

Tip de la semana: La confianza da dividendos

Handicapping siempre implica algún tipo de riesgo porque algo que es seguro es que no hay ninguna garantía  en las carreras de caballo.

Lo que ayuda, sin embargo, es poner las probabilidades a tu favor. Dada la oportunidad, hay menos riesgo por lo general, en elegir a un caballo prospecto resaltante en su campa#a que a un caballo con una pobre forma que viene de tropiezos durante su campa#a. Un buen ejemplo de ello se produjo en la sexta carrera en el hipodromo de Gulfstream Park. El 6 de Marzo, Haverhill entró en una de las  dos carreras prometodoras en el encuentro. El 16 de Enero, en su primera apertura desde el envio de Woodbine, que fue segundo por 3 1/2 cuerpos en una carrera limitada a $20,000 demandantes. Fue sin duda un mayor esfuerzo para el castrado de 5 años de edad que había sido reclamado por $16,000 de un cuarto puesto en su apertura anterior en Woodbine por laentranadora Katherina Vassilieva.

Lo que sucedió siguiente refleja la confianza Vassilieva en su nuevo corredor. Ella inscribio a Haverhill en una claimer más fuerte opcional de $25,000, poniendo a el hijo de Saffir contra la competencia de allowance, el  resultado para aquel entonces fue un rendimiento aún mejor, la distancia y un corredor de media lo hizo terminar en la pizarra con 12-1 probabilidades. La recompensa llego el 6 de Marzo. Inscrito en el mismo reclamante $25,000 opcional, la forma en que Haverhill mejoró resultó en una victoria larga con 9 cuerpos y un dividendo de $7.40 para sus patrocinadores.

La Lección: prestar atención cuando un entranador demuestra la confianza en un caballo. Si un caballo muestra la capacidad de manejar un desafio más dificíl por lo general indica un ciclo de forma que es digno de seguir

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

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