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Blog - GAMBLING

Animal Kingdom was impressive in his Dubai World Cup win (Photo courtest Eclipse Sportswire).

Well it was a phenomenal weekend any way you look at racing – domestic or international – with some great performances at Gulfstream Park and Meydan. Let’s dive into some of the key data from the week that was.

Florida Derby

Orb remains significantly impressive, following his wide trip in the Fountain of Youth with another one in the Florida Derby. When the running happened late, Orb was really the only one doing anything about it. There will be consistent comparisons to the Gulfstream Oaks, where Dreaming of Julia battered her rivals in a procession, also over the same 1 1/8-mile trip. Let’s take a look into the performances of both a bit closer.

Full Sectionals

1/4

1/2

3/4

1M

1 1/8M

Orb

:25.13

:48.99

1:13.15

1:38.00

1:50.87

Dreaming of Julia

:23.60

:47.38

1:11.22

1:36.12

1:48.97

Final 1/4 Sectionals

1/4 to 3/16

3/16 to 1/8

1/8 to 1/16

1/16 to Finish

Final 1/4

Orb

6.17

6.23

6.31

6.55

25.26

Dreaming of Julia

6.17

6.11

6.31

6.52

25.11


Remember that with all things being equal, both horses will have completely different goals on the first weekend in May, with Orb going the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and Dreaming of Julia running over the nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks a day earlier. It might not sound like an eighth of a mile is a big difference, but true to the pace in each race, it certainly is.

While Dreaming of Julia ran notably faster in the earlier stages of her race, and with a wide and easy lead late, she cruised home just barely faster than a pot-committed Orb.

Looking back to previous races, Orb has covered plenty of extra ground. In his January allowance win at Gulfstream, over the same trip as the Florida Derby, the son of Malibu Moon covered 30 feet more than second home Duke of the City, and 16 feet more than Indy’s Illusion. In the Fountain of Youth, Orb covered the most ground of the first six finishers, and sat off a notably warmer pace than he saw in the allowance win and his Derby success. This Shug McGaughey trainee has shown remarkable versatility to still run his race regardless of pace and trip, with all three seasonal wins coming with wide trips and varying pace setups.

For now, Orb would seem to hold a massive claim to the big prize in Kentucky should all go well over the next five weeks. 

Orchid Stakes, Skip Away Stakes

Fillies and mares darted over the firm Gulfstream turf course in the 1 ½-mile Orchid Stakes where Michelle Nihei-trainee Regalo Mia managed her first open-company stakes victory after several near-misses in the past. It was a two-length score over Italian-bred Angegreen and Canadian classic winner Irish Mission. On the data, it was that Ontario-bred and Mark Frostad trainee who has the most compelling data from the Orchid. Irish Mission covered 45 feet more than Regalo Mia and 56 feet more than Angegreen. Considering the daughter of Giant’s Causeway was beaten just two lengths, she is one to watch going forward. Factoring in the added ground covered, Irish Mission traversed an extra 6 ½ lengths relative to Angegreen and about 5 ¼ lengths compared to Regalo Mia.

Rashard Lewis, co-owner of Skip Away Stakes winner Cigar Street, could be in for a wild ride with more than just his NBA-leading Miami Heat. A winner of three straight at Gulfstream, Cigar Street did it again, notching his first graded stakes victory and doing so with a wide trip off a draw in gate eight. The first three runners headed to the backstretch were rail-placed Take Charge Indy, the winner of the 2012 Florida Derby, with Pants On Fire to his outside and an even wider Cigar Street.

The Bill Mott trainee progressed to the lead and never looked back, covering 40 feet more than Take Charge Indy and 13 feet more than Pants On Fire. If you adjusted the final margin of victory for extra ground covered, it suggests Cigar Street was roughly 6 ¾ lengths better than Take Charge Indy.  On average speeds, the son of Street Sense averaged 37.2 MPH over the 9.5 furlongs, which was 0.4 MPH more than Take Charge Indy and 0.6 MPH more than Pants On Fire.

CIGAR STREET WINNING THE SKIP AWAY STAKES

igar Street Courtney Heeney

Photo courtesy Bob Coglianese Photos/Courtney Heeney

Dubai World Cup

Animal Kingdom dominated his international peers with a stalking ride, overcame a wide draw and ground-losing trip and still powered away from some of the best in the world. While Red Cadeaux might not be familiar to many in America, he is one of the world’s best traveled gallopers and caught a nice second behind the Kentucky Derby winner. Red Cadeaux was second in the 2011 Melbourne Cup over two miles and eighth in the 2012 edition before heading off to Hong Kong to win the prestigious Longines Hong Kong Vase at 1 ½ miles. His second behind Animal Kingdom was the shortest race he contested since a May 17, 2009 maiden event at Ripon when he was third over 1 1/8 miles on grass.

In the interim from that low-level event, Red Cadeaux raced in the UK, Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, England again, Australia again, Japan, Hong Kong again, and finally the United Arab Emirates. Animal Kingdom beat a very good horse, and the Trakus data suggests it was even better than it looked. Red Cadeaux, drawn in gate two, enjoyed a ground saving trip for almost the entire race, and covered 17 meters (55.7 feet) less than Animal Kingdom. While the final margin between them was only two lengths, the added ground suggests that Animal Kingdom was about 8 ½ lengths better.

No matter where he runs going forward, this year’s Dubai World Cup performance will be one to savor for a long time.

Dubai Sheema Classic

How about 2011 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner St Nicholas Abbey defeating Japan Cup empress Gentildonna?  If it looked like an impressive tally, it was. Every sectional after the first half-mile was a record in the race, and both St. Nicholas Abbey and Gentildonna pressed the early leader, Shareta, throughout. While Gentildonna covered about 3 ½ lengths more than St. Nicholas Abbey, the fact that both attended the pace and stayed on showed just how dominant they were over their competition. Very Nice Name, a winner of five consecutive against lesser company in Qatar, ran on to grab third at a big price.  While covering more ground for Qatari-based trainer Alban de Mieulle, his run from the back of the back suggested the strength of the pace.

 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY WINNING THE DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSICSt Nic Horsephotos

Photo courtesy Horsephotos.com

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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