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Blog - GAMBLING

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

If there’s one thing that’s inevitable in a horse race, it’s a difference of opinion.

What may be a certain winner to one handicapper can be a sure-fire loser to another, and it’s those contrasting thoughts that frame the challenge for handicappers in any race.

A favorite is usually the horse that stands out in a race, though on occasion what’s most noticeable to some cautious handicappers is a compelling reason to look elsewhere for a winner.

A good example of that could be found in the second race at Keeneland on April 10.

The favorite that day was Tape It, who was sent off as a 6-5 favorite – a highly suspicious 6-5 favorite.

Among a field of seven 3-year-olds racing in a $20,000 claiming race, Tape It held a very convincing edge in class.  

In December and January, Tape It finished second in a pair of starter optional claiming races at Aqueduct that were worth $56,000 in purse money and featured horses with $60,000 claiming tags.  

Then on March 7, off a two-month layoff, he finished fifth at that same optional claiming level and was shipped to Keeneland in search of an easier spot.

The April 10 race seemed to provide it. Worth $22,000 in purse money, it featured five horses that started for a claiming price of $25,000 or less.  

The key question involved whether Tape It would run back to his December and January form against weaker competition. If he did, the race would be a mismatch. But what if that effort in his last race was an indication of declining form?

Some might have needed a coin-flip to settle that question, but there was one rather loud signal that the answer was “tails, declining form.”

Owned by Robert LaPenta, whose stable is usually on display in allowance and stakes races rather than claimers, Stick It was originally purchased in 2011 for $200,000. And now, about 18 months later, with paltry career earnings of $46,880, his connections are willing to lose him for just $20,000.

Sounds pretty suspicious, doesn’t it?

It was.

Tape It made a move on the turn but then flattened out in the stretch and finished third, paving the way for Straight Town to post a half-length victory. The co-second choice in the race, Straight Town was also dropping in claiming price. He, however, dipped from $25,000 to a mere $20,000 off a highly acceptable third-place finish.

For him, it was a reasonable drop in search of a winning spot and those that tabbed him off a slight class drop received $9.80 at the cashier’s window

Logic was rewarded.

THE LESSON: Class drops can often make all the sense in the world, yet at times what seems to be too good to be true is just that – it’s not true.

TAPE IT'S KEENELAND RACE CHART

BT Inside 4 29

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Punto de la semana: Jugando Favoritos

En Español 

Translated by Anthony Gutierrez

Si hay una cosa que es inevitable es una carrera de caballos, es una diferencia de opinión. Lo que puede ser un perderdor seguro de sí, y son esos pensamientos contraste que enmarcan el reto para los jugadores en cualquier carrera.

Un favorito suele ser el caballo que se destaca en una carrera, aunque en ocasiones lo que es más notaria en algunos handicappers prudentes es una razón de peso para mirar a otra parte para un ganador.

Un buen ejemplo de ello se puede conocer en la segunda carrera en Keeneland, el 10 de Abril. El favorito de ese día fue Tape It, quien fue mandado como favorito a 6-5 a muy sospechoso 6-5 favorito. Dentro de un campo de siete caballos de 3 años en una carrera de $20,000 claimer, Tape It obtenia un borde muy convincente en clase.

En Diciembre y Enero, Tape It terminó segundo en un par de starter optional claimer en Aqueduct un valor de $56,000 en monedero y contó con caballos con $60,000 en etiquetas de claiming.

A continuación, el 7 de Marzo, de un descanso de dos meses, terminó quinto en el mismo nivel alegando opcional y fue enviado a Keeneland en busca de un lugar más facil. La carrera de el 10 de Abril, parecía que lo proporcione. Valor de $22,000 de dinero en bolsillo, que contó con cinco caballos que comemzaron por un precio de reclamo de $25,000 o menos.

La pregunta clave involucrado si Tape It iría de nuevo a su forma de Diciembre y Enero contra la competencia más débil. Si lo hiciera, la carrera iba a ser una falta de coincidencia. Pero, ¿ y si ese esfuerzo en su última carrera fue una indicación de la dismución de la forma?

Algunos podrían haber necesitado un cara o ceyo para resolver esta cuestión, pero no había una señal más fuerte que la respuesta era "ceyos, disminuyendo de forma".

Propiedad de Robert LaPenta, donde su establo está generalmente en la exhibición en subsidio o estacas carreras en lugar de demandantes, Tape It se compró en 2011 por $200,000. Y ahora, unos 18 meses después, con las ganancias en parte de carrera de los $46,880, sus contactos están dispuestos a perderlo por $20,000.

Suena sospechoso, ¿no?

Sí fue.

Tape It hizo un movimiento en la curva, pero luego se aplanó en la recta final y terminó en tercer lugar, allanando el camino para Straight Town para publicar una victoria de medio cuerpo. El co-segundo elección en la carrera, Straight Town también fue bajando de precio reclamando. Él sin embargo, bajó de $25,000 a un mero $20,000 de tercer puesto muy aceptable.

Para él, se trataba de una caida razonable en busca de un lugar ganador y los que lo siguieron de un ligero descenso de clase recibieron $9.80 en la ventanilla del cajero.

Lógica fue recompensado.

La lección: Caída de la clase a menudo puede tener todo el sentido del mundo, pero a veces lo que parace ser demasiado bueno para ser verdad es sólo eso-que no es verdad.

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GET IN THE GAME

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

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