Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man battled it out in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic and look to do the same in 2013 (Photos courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire).
It’s been thrilling to analyze the form for this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup meeting, but we must identify several horses that are likely to get “reverse trips” from their recent runs. A reverse trip is what we would estimate to be a significantly different race setup from a ground coverage standpoint than a previously beneficial or troublesome run.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Wayne Catalano-trainee Poker Player was the beneficiary of an amazing trip in the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland as jockey Channing Hill made the most of a draw in ten to get to the rail and propel through the right spots. Can it happen again?
This race does not have a tremendous amount of early pace projected (outside Bobby’s Kitten), and the horses that surround Poker Player are unlikely to show an obscene interest in getting towards the front early. Absolutely everything needs to go the right way for this Harlan’s Holiday colt.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
The 8-1 morning line on Brazilian-bred, Uruguayan-raced Brujo de Olleros is surely of interest after securing a cozy draw in four. With a quick run to the first turn, this entire (horse) by Wild Event was wide during his trip in the Kelso and covered 25 feet more than winner Graydar. His two-turn performance against lesser at Delaware this year was an explosive performance, backed-up by a wide run at Belmont. The reverse trip expected is in his favor.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
There was no denying that My Conquestadory had to check on several occasions in the Darley Alcibiades last time, but the second choice on the morning line for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is drawn in 14. After checking at the start in her most previous run, My Conquestadory got to the rail and enjoyed a ground-saving escapade around Keeneland.
Last year, the filly drawn in gate 13 covered the co-widest trip in this race, while the filly drawn in gate 14 (Infanta Branca) missed the break completely and was last until the final furlong when she passed three others to finish tenth. The Gold Cheongsam, who was drawn in gate 12, covered the second widest trip in the race. Unless My Conquestadory manages a brilliant passage in the running, she gets a setup likely very different to what she faced at Keeneland, and is an even stronger play-against at her 9-2 morning line.
MY CONQUESTADORY WINNING THE ALCIBIADES
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Rosalind, drawn in gate two, is a massive benefactor of a likely reverse trip in this event after running no less than four wide throughout the Darley Alcibiades. This filly, only a winner on turf on debut at Ellis Park, did enjoy a ground-saving trip in the Pocahontas, but truly stayed-on to grab a placing before her wide, but game run as the 9-2 second-choice last time.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Peter Eurton trainee Dance With Fate did much of the leg work chasing the speed in the FrontRunner and stayed on with style to run second behind Bond Holder last out. In so doing, he covered 43 feet more than that rival, equating to roughly five lengths. This colt by Two Step Salsa will likely get a much more advantageous trip sitting just off the speed, but inside, with a post down in gate two. Meanwhile, speedy Havana is poised for a negative reverse trip if he cannot clear to the inside, drawn in 13. The flashy gray son of Dunkirk has been free and clear of his competition for his two lifetime starts. In last year’s Juvenile at Santa Anita, the two widest drawn runners, Fortify and Power Broker (from gates eight and nine, respectively), covered the second-widest and widest trips. Power Broker was floated particularly wide on the first turn to his added detriment. This year, 14 face the starter, only increasing those odds.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Drawn a year ago in gate eleven for the Classic, Mucho Macho Man tracked Fort Larned throughout the race to his outside, and in so doing, covered 33 feet more than that winner, a distance equating to much more than the final narrow margin. Now, the son of Juvenile winner Macho Uno is in gate six, and likely to get a better position behind the speedier Moreno, while Fort Larned is likely to go with him from an outer draw. The extra ground Mucho Macho Man covered in the Awesome Again suggests that performance was even better than the final margin indicates. If he is ready for another big one, the dynamics of the race seem to be in his corner.
Good luck at the Breeders’ Cup – we will return with a review of all the key data next week!