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Blog - GAMBLING

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

In a previous betting tip, the value of backing a European in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon was pointed out.

In Part 2 of this Breeders’ Cup exercise in redboarding, this year’s world championships illustrated another handicapping nugget that should be stored away until next year’s series returns to Santa Anita: Go with the Europeans in the juvenile turf races.

Since the addition of the Juvenile Turf in 2007 and Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2008 to the Breeders’ Cup roster, the 13 editions of the two races have been won on eight occasions by Europeans. Adding to the international flavor, there was also one winner who had previously raced in Canada (More Than Real in the 2010 BCJFT), though she was based in the U.S. of A.

In particular, the Juvenile Turf has been a haven for the Europeans. They’ve won 6 of the 7 runnings and in that one setback, a foreign invader, Achill Island, was a troubled second.

This year, they ran 1-2 with Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini and that marked the second time in four tries there was an all-Europe exacta in California, illustrating how the Europeans have found the right answers for the hard, firm turf at Santa Anita.

EUROPEANS RAN 1-2 IN THE 2013 EDITION OF THE JUVENILE TURF

Juv Turf Hero

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Interestingly, only once in the seven editions of the BCJT has a favorite taken the race, so don’t focus all of your attention on those shippers who are billed as runners who “shan’t lose.”

On the fillies’ side, it took a while for them to get rolling, but Europe has produced the last two winners of the BCJFT and backing a hat trick seems a wise move, even if the race is more than 11 months away.

As with the BCJT, both European conquerors in the BCJFT have not been favored. Flotilla was sent off at 11-1 and was the third choice among the Europeans on the toteboard, while Chriselliam was priced at 6-1 this year and was also third in odds among the overseas contingent.

THE LESSON: Backing a European in a juvenile turf race at the Breeders’ Cup might seem like an obvious tactic, but the trick is to avoid focusing too much attention on the favorite. More times than not it is one of the lesser fancied Europeans who lands in the winners’ circle.

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

Image Description

Bob Ehalt

Bob Ehalt has been an avid fan of Thoroughbred racing since that day in June of 1971 when he and his father walked from their Queens Village, N.Y., home to Belmont Park to see Canonero II fall short in his bid for the Triple Crown. A veteran sports writer and correspondent for Thoroughbred Times magazine, Bob has covered horse racing for more than 20 years and has won three awards in the Associated Press Sports Editors national writing contest for his coverage of the sport.

Now working at the New Haven Register in Connecticut, Bob has also owned Thoroughbreds since 1995 and was a member of the syndicate that raced Tale of the Cat. He also writes a racing blog for ESPNNewYork.com and is the co-founder of the New York Hot List handicapping service, which is offered at InterBets.com.

His NTRA.com blog received first-place honors in the 2008-09 Breeders' Cup Media Awards, winning in the initial year of competition in the Social Media category.  You can follow him on Twitter at @BobEhalt

 

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