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Blog - GAMBLING

The 2012-2013 season at Tampa Bay Downs opened with a single card last Saturday, and the action only heats up from there, both literally and figuratively. In this week’s blog, we review data from two distances on the main track from last season at Tampa. When offering the data from a Trakus-equipped facility, we strategically select the distances to study, focusing on distances that often offer the best chance for ground loss to identify the most meaning out of the data. At Tampa, races on the turf course start in both a front-stretch chute and the straightaway, which certainly does change the complexion of early positioning from riders. As such, two dirt distances were chosen for the study – six furlongs and one mile and 40 yards.

Below are the average ground traveled numbers sorted by post position and finishing position. 

Tampa Bay Downs - Average Ground Traveled by Post Position

6 Furlongs - Dirt

1 Mile 40 Yards - Dirt

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

1

4000

-

-

1

5464

-

-

2

4005

5

0.58

2

5469

5

0.58

3

4009

9

1.06

3

5476

12

1.42

4

4010

10

1.18

4

5483

19

2.23

5

4012

12

1.41

5

5485

21

2.51

6

4014

14

1.65

6

5491

27

3.14

7

4015

15

1.76

7

5497

33

3.93

8

4017

17

2.00

8

5502

38

4.46

9

4018

18

2.12

9

5502

38

4.48

10

4021

21

2.47

10

5504

40

4.73

11

4022

22

2.59

11

N/A

-

-

12

4028

28

3.29

12

N/A

-

-

Tampa Bay Downs - Average Ground Traveled by Finishing Position

6 Furlongs - Dirt

1 Mile 40 Yards - Turf

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

1st

4011

1st

5482

2nd

4011

2nd

5485

3rd

4010

3rd

5486

4th

4011

4th

5483

5th

4010

5th

5481

6th

4012

6th

5481

7th

4011

7th

5481

8th

4010

8th

5488

9th

4014

9th

5490

10th

4012

10th

5480

11th

4009

11th

N/A

12th

4012

12th

N/A

Peter Mallett, longtime Tampa Bay Downs press box denizen, author of the annual Tampa Bay Downs Betting Guide, handicapper and all-around good-guy, hypothesized at the beginning of last year’s meet, the first with Trakus, that the preference of “wider-being-better” might be exhibited in the Trakus numbers. Like any surface, it has the ability to change with prevailing weather and course conditions, and it does. However, a defined regular trend really did not emerge from the data. Overall, the base conclusion from the data is that the main track surface plays relatively fair across all lanes. Whereas we’ve seen some substantial differences with past studies, the data that emerged last season at Tampa proved remarkably even. 

The average winner at both studied distances did not cover the shortest trip, but was within one foot of that figure, while the average runner finishing in the top six positions at each distance was within no more than a about a half-length of extra coverage from any of the other positions (two feet at six furlongs – 4010 to 4012 – which equates to roughly one-quarter of a length, and five feet at the extended mile trip – 5481 to 5486 – just more than a half-length). Tenth-place finishers statistically covered the shortest trip in those Tampa two-turn dirt races, but the sample size of those was particularly limited, thus dimming the impact to the overall data.

Below, you will find the Tampa Bay Downs Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings for the two distances studied. A minimum of 30 mounts combined between the two distances was required for inclusion.

Tampa Bay Downs - 2011-2012 Jockey Efficiency Ratings

6 Furlongs (Dirt)

JER Rank

Jockey

Avg Delta

 

Mounts

Wins

Win %

AvgWinOdds

$2 ROI

#1

Valls, W

-7.54

 

20

1

5.0%

35.07

$0.94

#2

Marin, A

-5.54

 

22

2

9.1%

26.13

$2.55

#3

Morales, P

-4.40

 

43

7

16.3%

8.77

$2.26

#4

Santos, A

-4.00

 

42

6

14.3%

29.26

$3.03

#5

Coa, D

-2.91

 

34

6

17.6%

8.11

$2.22

#6

Delgado, J

-2.29

 

23

3

13.0%

25.63

$1.57

#7

Serpa, A

-1.69

 

40

8

20.0%

7.86

$1.44

#8

Goncalves, L

-1.60

 

53

14

26.4%

6.43

$1.29

#9

Jurado, E

-1.33

 

26

2

7.7%

25.53

$3.18

#10

Speith, S

-0.81

 

33

3

9.1%

10.58

$0.75

#11

Allen Jr, R

-0.70

 

85

11

12.9%

6.69

$1.41

#12

Cotto Jr, P

-0.47

 

30

7

23.3%

14.05

$6.59

#13

De La Cruz, F

-0.33

 

53

3

5.7%

14.91

$1.00

#14

Villa Gomez, H

-0.24

 

48

8

16.7%

6.99

$1.74

#15

Oro, E

-0.21

 

11

0

0.0%

43.39

$0.00

#16

Barbaran, E

-0.20

 

45

3

6.7%

27.49

$1.13

#17

Feliciano, R

-0.15

 

29

4

13.8%

10.98

$1.00

#18

Rosendo, I

-0.03

 

29

2

6.9%

15.74

$1.90

#19

Centeno, D

1.43

 

28

9

32.1%

5.26

$2.41

#20

Moreno, A

1.57

 

23

4

17.4%

22.74

$1.49

#21

Lopez, J

1.96

 

30

4

13.3%

26.88

$1.18

#22

Guidry, M

2.49

 

19

2

10.5%

5.82

$1.21

#23

Vargas, J

2.56

 

27

4

14.8%

22.60

$1.13

#24

Homeister, R

3.48

 

58

8

13.8%

9.38

$1.53

#25

Rincon, G

3.50

 

20

0

0.0%

46.41

$0.00

#26

Butler, D

3.51

 

22

1

4.5%

11.92

$0.28

#27

Gonzalez, L

4.34

 

30

2

6.7%

14.30

$0.55

#28

Allen, M

4.92

 

34

2

5.9%

24.51

$3.82

#29

Garcia, J

6.23

 

21

3

14.3%

17.70

$1.84

#30

Martinez, W

6.23

 

19

4

21.1%

8.14

$1.65

Tampa Bay Downs - 2011-2012 Jockey Efficiency Ratings

1 Mile 40 Yards (Dirt)

JER Rank

Jockey

Avg Delta

 

Mounts

Wins

Win %

AvgWinOdds

$2 ROI

 #1

Lopez, J

-10.40

 

10

0

0.0%

36.32

$0.00

#2

Santos, A

-7.36

 

30

4

13.3%

29.93

$2.87

#3

Serpa, A

-6.78

 

34

6

17.6%

6.32

$1.42

#4

Gonzalez, L

-6.64

 

24

4

16.7%

19.39

$2.18

#5

Speith, S

-4.93

 

8

0

0.0%

28.32

$3.53

#6

Cotto Jr, P

-4.22

 

12

2

16.7%

17.41

$0.73

#7

Feliciano, R

-3.82

 

25

5

20.0%

10.38

$2.16

#8

Rosendo, I

-3.56

 

33

3

9.1%

15.60

$0.75

#9

Goncalves, L

-2.95

 

37

8

21.6%

4.29

$1.09

#10

Coa, D

-2.79

 

18

5

27.8%

5.25

$5.51

#11

Barbaran, E

-2.52

 

37

7

18.9%

18.46

$2.84

#12

Villa Gomez, H

-2.34

 

36

6

16.7%

9.35

$2.01

#13

Marin, A

-1.70

 

12

2

16.7%

14.95

$1.37

#14

Jurado, E

-0.81

 

30

3

10.0%

18.26

$1.07

#15

Rincon, G

-0.39

 

14

1

7.1%

39.12

$1.20

#16

De La Cruz, F

0.39

 

20

2

10.0%

10.64

$0.82

#17

Homeister, R

0.44

 

41

6

14.6%

7.52

$1.60

#18

Delgado, J

0.92

 

16

2

12.5%

21.27

$2.04

#19

Valls, W

1.06

 

24

0

0.0%

28.87

$0.00

#20

Oro, E

1.78

 

20

4

20.0%

29.27

$4.70

#21

Martinez, W

1.88

 

12

1

8.3%

7.59

$0.68

#22

Morales, P

2.75

 

31

5

16.1%

8.42

$1.55

#23

Vargas, J

3.19

 

21

3

14.3%

22.25

$2.78

#24

Guidry, M

3.93

 

15

2

13.3%

3.96

$0.75

#25

Butler, D

4.26

 

25

6

24.0%

8.50

$2.17

#26

Allen Jr, R

4.90

 

60

9

15.0%

9.31

$1.28

#27

Garcia, J

5.75

 

13

1

7.7%

12.33

$0.34

#28

Centeno, D

10.28

 

17

3

17.6%

3.82

$1.28

#29

Moreno, A

11.54

 

10

2

20.0%

22.29

$4.48

#30

Allen, M

13.40

 

18

2

11.1%

26.03

$12.38


Having 30 jockeys qualify for the JERs is largest net we’ve spread in the short history of the JERs. 

As we did last week, looking at average deltas at Gulfstream based solely on jockeys’ mounts when they were planted wide in the gate for a two-turn turf race, we do the same for Tampa. This time, we surveyed the ground traveled statistics for the mounts that were installed in gates seven and higher in one-mile and 40-yard races. While the overall JER figures are helpful in identifying overall jockey performance, the wide draw statistics might even be more meaningful in the long term. When stuck wide, how a jockey reacts and attempts to manage a better trip seems potentially more valuable. Field sizes are limited to ten horses in these races, hence the gate selection. Jockeys had to have at least five mounts to qualify.

Jockey

Avg Delta, Post 7+

Rosendo, I

-8.37

Santos, A

-7.84

Serpa, A

-6.00

Villa Gomez, H

-5.65

Feliciano, R

-4.53

Homeister, R

-2.61

Guidry, M

-2.46

De La Cruz, F

-0.77

Jurado, E

-0.16

Goncalves, L

0.05

Vargas, J

0.22

Speith, S

1.58

Allen, M

3.01

Valls, W

3.89

Barbaran, E

5.47

Morales, P

6.81

Centeno, D

8.09

Allen Jr, R

9.26

Gonzalez, L

10.69

Butler, D

12.94

Moreno, A

15.84

Purple Egg Impresses

Tampa Bay Downs got their season off to a flying start, featuring a full slate of two-year-old races last Saturday. There was plenty to be excited about after the performance of Purple Egg in the Inaugural Stakes. A gelding by Lion Heart, Purple Egg made it three consecutive wins to start his career for trainer Jane Cibelli. 

Rarely, if ever, have we seen the type of fast closing fractions put in from Purple Egg in a 2-year-old race at six furlongs.  Heavy 1-2 favorite Brave Dave led through relatively moderate opening fractions, but it left plenty in the tank for Purple Egg to close. Coming from off the pace under Roberto Alvarado Jr., Purple Egg rattled home with a final quarter mile in 23.75 seconds, and a final eighth in 11.97 seconds. Comparatively, Brave Dave recorded a final quarter in 24.36 seconds and a final eighth in 12.38 seconds.

Comments/Feedback

As we’ve long said, the data published in these pages is designed for handicapper and fan consumption – any suggestions you have are welcome!  Comment here or reach out to us on Twitter @trakusracing

 

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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